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    Sunday, May 31, 2009

    Padres end 3-3 road trip with a 5-2 win over the Rockies

    Sunday May 31, 2009

    The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 today at Coors Field in Denver to improve their record on the season to .500 at 25-25. The Padres 3-3 record on this road trip was a big improvement over their 5-16 road record going into it.

    The game was highlighted by Adrian Gonzalez's league leading 20th home run and closer Heath Bell's league leading 15th save.

    When was the last time Padres fans could talk about having two league leaders in a positive category on the roster?

    Gonzalez crushed a 3 run shot to left field in the 3rd inning that staked Padres starter Chad Gaudin to a 3 run lead. Gonzalez is now the Padres all time leader in home runs through the end of May and he did it in just 179 at bats. Greg Vaughan had been the previous leader with 17 home runs through the end of May in his Padres record 50 home run season in 1998.

    Gaudin went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 9 including 6 of the 1st 8 batters he faced while walking zero. Gaudin had been plagued by wildness recently, walking 16 in 15 2/3 ip over his last 3 starts prior to today, so it was nice to see him attacking hitters and throwing strikes.

    One day after blowing his first save of the season, Bell came in and pitched a perfect 9th for his 15th save of the season.

    As much as I howled about the trade that sent Jody Gerut to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the offensive production by Jr. He is 10/25 - .320 with 8 runs scored in 9 games. His defense has been less than stellar, but his offense has been outstanding.

    The Padres now return to San Diego for a 6 game home stand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks starting tomorrow. The Padres split a series 2-1 with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia in April as part of a 9-3 start.

    Kevin Correia will square up against the Phillies' Joe Blanton in the series opener tomorrow, followed by gimping Padres starter Jake Peavy against rookie Antonio Bastardo in his first major league start on Tuesday.

    Can the Padres continue their .739 win percentage at home against the defending World Series champion Phillies and the division rival Diamondbacks?

    Should the Padres trade Chris Young?

    Saturday May 30, 2009

    I know alot of the focus has been on the Padres dumping salary by trading away Jake Peavy, but I think the Padres may be able to get more value in trading Chris Young.

    Young is pitching well and because of his relatively low salary requirements over the next 2 seasons ($4.5 million in 2009, $6.25 million in 2010 and a club option at $8.5 million in 2011) and being locked up for 2 seasons without a no trade clause, Young may actually bring back more value in trade than he is giving the Padres.

    Lets face it, while a good pitcher, Young is not a stopper like Peavy. If you have one game you absolutely must win you are not going to run Chris Young out there.

    But Young's numbers are very good and he holds high value.

    The Phillies have a big need for pitching with Myers out for the season and they have some great young arms they could send back in return.

    The White Sox obviously need pitching and would probably send the same package minus Lance Broadway back in trade for Young. The big question is how would he do in that bandbox?

    The Marlins are looking for pitching help and could be tempted by Young's low salary in 2010 and 2011, although it is a bit more than they normally pay. Straight up for Uggla?

    The Mets could use another starter and Young would be a perfect fit in that huge park. Would they be willing to part with Fernando Martinez and a couple of low level pitching prospects?

    Seattle could use another starter and they are rumored to be shopping Bedard which would great a big hole in their lineup. The Padres were very interested in Garrett Olson prior to the season. Could a trade for Olson and a couple of prospects be in the works for Young?

    Obviously there is a need on several teams and a couple that may even be good fits for a flyball pitcher.

    I have had my say. Now what do you think?

    Saturday, May 30, 2009

    Padres drop 2nd straight game to hapless Rockies

    Saturday May 30, 2009

    Well, now we know, Heath Bell is human. He blew his first save and the San Diego Padres lost 8-7 tonight to the Colorado Rockies.

    But the game really hinged on errors. Both those called errors and those not called errors.
    In the 3rd inning Gwynn Jr twice kicked a ball hit to the gap by Clint Barmes and it was called a triple. 2 batters later Garrett Atkins hit a sacrifice fly to deep center and Barmes scored.

    Another error by Gwynn Jr. led to an unearned run. This was a game where the Padres really missed the defense of Jody Gerut.

    And there you have the difference in the game.

    Bell or another of the Padres relievers may have given up 4 runs in the 9th, but somehow I doubt that given how well they have pitched as a unit for the past 2 weeks.

    On a day when the Dodgers also lost, I was hoping to see the Padres would win one and pick up ground in the NL West. It wasn't to be.

    Padres shut out in Coors Field

    Saturday May 30, 2009

    A shutout in Coors? yup. The San Diego Padres lost 3-0 to the Colorado Rockies last night in Denver.

    From what I have been reading there have been less than 10 shutouts in Coors field history and the Padres have been part of 4 of them.

    Chris Young pitched well, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 ip, but both staffs got squeezed a bit by home plate umpire Jerry Layne and Young walked 6.

    If Kouzmanoff does not allow a ball to slip under his glove in the 6th, this could have been a 1-0 game.

    1-0 In COORS FIELD!

    Adrian Gonzalez was pitched around in this game walking 3 times and will continue to be pitched around until a Padres hitter can prove he can consistently hit in the #5 slot.

    Right now Padres #5 batters are hitting a MLB worst .231/.286/.319/.604. They badly need someone to step up and make teams pay when they put Adrian Gonzalez on base.

    Scott Hairston is howing he is not the answer and has begun his annual swoon vs RHP. In two weeks he has dropped from .297 to .268 against right handed pitching while still hitting .389 against LHP.

    Soon the Padres will be forced to platoon him in most situations and Gwynn is no Gerut against RHP.

    Still, the Padres should be able to take 2 of 3 against the slumping Rockies. I guess it will depend on which Josh Geer shows up today.

    Wednesday, May 27, 2009

    Padres win 8-5 over the Diamondbacks

    Wednesday May 27, 2009

    Why does Bud Black seem to believe that starters have to go 6?

    Time after time he leaves pitchers in after they have shown they are done.

    Correia got hit because he was tired and elevating pitches in the 5th last night, so what does Black do? Bring him back to give up 4 more runs in the 6th.

    That loss is squarely on the manager's shoulders. He should know the signs to look for in a tired pitcher, but he doesn't seem to have that ability.

    Tonight Peavy struggles through the 6th, elevating his pitches and missing his spots. So what does Black do? He brings him back in the 7th so he can give up another run before giving way to Gregerson. Why did he come out at all?

    Luckily, the Diamondbacks bullpen seems intent on giving up as many runs as they possibly can and immediately gave up 3 runs on 4 walks, 2 errors and 2 singles in the 8th inning tonight.

    Even Greg Burke giving up a run in the 9th wasn't enough for the Diamondbacks, as the Padres beat them 8-5. It was just the 2nd run the Padres bullpen has given up since Duaner Sanchez gave up 4 runs on May 14th. Peavy went 6 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs while striking out 5 for his 5th win and Heath Bell pitched to one batter in the 9th for his 13th save.

    Adrian Gonzalez hit his league leading 18th home run and the Padres 1 through 4 hitters went 8 for 17 and scored all 8 Padres runs.

    The Padres are now 24-23 while the Diamondbacks fall to 20-27.

    Have you voted for Adrian Gonzalez yet?

    Wednesday May 27, 2009

    Hey you!

    Yes you. Have you cast your 25 All Star Game votes for Adrian Gonzalez yet?

    Well what is keeping you from voting? It only takes a couple of minutes. Get to it!

    Gonzalez may be the most deserving Padre All Star since Tony Gwynn Sr and without your help he may not make it.

    So please, in the immortal words of Chicago politics, vote early vote often.

    Why Padres CAN win the West

    Wednesday May 27, 2009

    Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.

    I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.

    I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.

    (Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)

    Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
    Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?

    Padres
    Brian Giles - .175
    Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
    David Eckstein - .225
    Edgar Gonzalez - .190
    Chase Headley - .234
    Chris Young - 4.76

    Dodgers
    Juan Pierre - .395
    Casey Blake - .309
    Orlando Hudson - .349
    Brad Ausmus - .355
    Randy Wolf - 3.02
    Jonathan Broxton - 1.17

    So what do all these players and their stats have in common?

    They are all far off their career norms.

    One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".

    What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.

    In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.

    There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.

    So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.

    All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.

    So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?

    Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.

    Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.

    David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.

    Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.

    Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.

    Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.

    Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.

    Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.

    A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.

    In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.


    Now for the Dodgers.

    Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.

    Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.

    Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.

    Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.

    Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.

    Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.

    Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.

    These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.

    Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.

    Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.

    Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.

    In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.

    Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?

    Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?

    That is a question for the baseball Gods.

    My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.

    I have had my say. Now what do you think?

    10 but not 11

    Wednesday May 27, 2009

    The San Diego Padres comeback fell short and they fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 last night in Phoenix.

    After starting pitcher Kevin Correia got in trouble by getting pitches up to the #8 and #9 hitters in the Diamondback's batting order and giving up two runs in the 5th, manager Bud Black made a critical mistake in sending him back out for the 6th inning.

    Correia left pitch after pitch up in the zone and got pounded for 5 hits and 4 more runs.

    Sometimes you wonder what Black is saving the bullpen for?

    The Padres hitters once again mounted a valiant comeback against the Diamondbacks bullpen scoring 5 runs in the 8th and 9th innings, but came up just short on Kevin Kouzmanoff's fly ball to the warning track in the 9th.

    Brian Giles continued his hot streak going 3 for 5 in the game. Giles has gone 6 for 10 in his last 4 games. He is still hitting just .189 on the season.

    Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer went 7 innings giving up just 6 hits and 2 runs while striking out 10 for his 2nd career win in 16 starts.

    Tonights rubber game is at 6:40pm pacific and pits Padres Ace Jake Peavy against Diamondbacks rookie Billy Buckner.

    Do you think Buckner may have gotten teased just a bit about his name? How many times was he asked about the error in 1986? I don't believe that this kid is related to Billy Buck, but I would love to hear about what having that famous (infamous?) name has put him through.

    Wednesday, May 20, 2009

    4 Straight Wins for the Padres

    Tuesday May 19, 2009

    The Padres winning streak is at 4 games.

    Look what happens. I go away from posting on this blog and other sites for a couple of days and suddenly the Padres are on their longest winning streak of the season. The San Diego Padres have now won four straight games after sweeping the Cincinnati Reds and winning one tonight 2-1 over Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants.

    I must admit that I only got to see 7 innings of Jake Peavy's complete game win against the Reds on Sunday. I was running a fever in the morning and I was not quite sure my wife was going to let me out of the house, but once again treachery and old age won out over sweetness and common sense. For those other 21,000 that were there that day and that are now feeling a cold coming on, my wife assures me it is entirely my fault.

    Peavy must have felt like Picasso, because he painted a masterpiece. 9 innings, 4 hits, ZERO walk and just 1 earned run on what may have been his only bad pitch of the game. How good was he? Of the 121 pitches he threw, 92 were strikes. Only 1 player had an extra base hit. Only 1 player got to 2nd base. In fact through 7 innings, only one Reds player was on base at all.

    You have got to feel privileged any time you get to see a pitching performance like that.

    Tonight we got to see another pitchers duel in which both Chris Young and Barry Zito pitched a great game. Unfortunately for Zito, who pitched 8 full innings and gave up just 5 hits, the 2 home runs he gave up to Scott Hairston in the 1st and Hundley in the 2nd were enough to hang him with the loss. It was Hairston's 5th home run of the season and Hundley's 2nd home run in as many at bats after his walk off blast against the Reds in the 16th inning on Saturday.

    Despite a 3.62 era, Zito is just 1-4 for the punchless Giants.

    CY went 6 strong only giving up only 5 hits while striking out 6. Young gave up only a single run in the 6th when Kouzmanoff and Eckstein were unable to turn a double play on a ground out by Emmanuel Burris with men on 1st and third.

    A trio from the Padres bullpen shut the Giants down for 3 innings and Heath Bell stayed perfect on the season while picking up his 10th save.

    Adrian Gonzalez continued his struggles on this home stand (and at Petco overall) by going 0-4 tonight. For the home stand he is just 2 for 18 with just 1 run batted in. A .111 batting average.

    Just a few moments ago I saw one of the most promising statistic of the year come across the TV Screen during the replay. What was it?

    It was a graphic showing the NL teams with the lowest number of extra base hits this season and the Giants headed the list with just 94 extra base hits and it rose to 108 extra base hits for the 5th worst team, the Reds.

    Why was that promising? The Padres were not on the list for the first time since 2007. The Padres are tied with the Cubs at 112 extra base hits going into tonight's game.

    A side note - Bruce Bochy, former Padres manager, got his 1176th loss tonight tying him with Frank Robinson for 28th all time. While Bochy has no shot at passing Connie Mack and his 3948 losses over 53 seasons, at his current pace Bochy has a good shot at passing Bucky Harris for the 2nd most losses in just 11 more seasons. Go for it Bochy!

    (A trivia question for you all. What manager has the best win-loss percentage since Jackie Robinson became the 1st African American player in modern baseball in 1947?)


    Now back to the Padres -

    Is it time to bring out the kool aid again?

    Far from it, but it is so nice to see four wins in a row after 11 losses in a row on the road.

    So, for now it is nice to report that the Padres winning streak is at 4 games.

    Sunday, May 17, 2009

    The Padres start a winning streak!

    Sunday May 17, 2009

    The Padres start a winning streak!


    Nick Hundley crushed a walk off home run to the upper deck in left field in the bottom of the 16th inning to give the San Diego Padres 6-5 win tonight over the Cincinnati Reds.

    Yes you read that right, 16th inning. The game lasted 5 hours and 14 minutes.

    Giles led off the game with a home run to RF and the Padres used nearly every player on the on the team by the time this one was over 16 innings later.

    22 of the Padres 25 players were used and when the game ended, the Padres had just Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Chad Gaudin available to pitch OR hit in pitchers spot in the 17th.

    Starter Josh Geer went 5 2/3 innings and gave up 5 runs on 2 huge home runs. The much maligned Padres bullpen then held the Reds scoreless for 10 1/3 innings.

    Luis Perdomo went 3 innings and took his first career win.

    The Padres had not won two games in a row since April 18th. It was also the last time the Padres swept a series. can they do it again tomorrow?

    The Padres have started a winning streak!

    Saturday, May 16, 2009

    Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

    Wee hours of the morning Saturday May 16, 2009

    Padres Win!

    Been a while since we have been able to say that!

    This win was a team win. Everyone contributed!

    Kevin Correia pitched 7 strong giving up just 5 hits, 3 runs and limited his walks to 2.
    That is nearly a miracle in and of itself.

    And the Padres came back from a 3-1 deficit to score runs in the bottom of the 6th and 7th to win the game over the Cincinnati Reds.

    Adrian Gonzalez continues to be ON FIRE, hitting his major league leading 15th home run of the season in the bottom of the 1st inning. Don't look now, but Adrian is on pace to hit 67.5 home runs for the season. I don't think he will get there, but 40 is certainly within reach and reason for the younger Gonzalez.

    Brian Giles was batting leadoff tonight and contributed a hit and a run.

    Kevin Kouzmanoff came up with a clutch double in the 6th to drive in Jody Gerut who singled. Gerut also also hit a Sac Fly fly in the 7th to drive in a run.

    All of the starters had at least one hit with Eckstein and Hairston also driving in runs with singles in a three run 7th.

    Heath Bell came in with 2 out in the 8th and induced a pop out from Brandon Harris, then overcame a lead off double and a walk to get his 9th save of the season.

    Bell is perfect in 9 save opportunities and maintained his 0.00 ERA.

    So say it with me folks. It feels too good not to.

    Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

    Friday, May 15, 2009

    Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

    Friday May 15, 2009

    Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

    That didn't take long.

    According to Corey Brock of MLB.com on his Twitter, the San Diego Padres have designated Duaner Sanchez for assignment, giving the team 10 days to trade or place the reliever on waivers. It is expected that Sanchez and his 9.00 ERA in 12 appearances this season will easily make it through waivers. The Padres can then assign him to their minor league system.

    The Padres also claimed the well travelled 29 year old infielder Josh Wilson off waivers, after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment earlier this week.

    Wilson is a career minor leaguer and has hit .233/.290/.324/.614 at the major league level over 127 games and 4 seasons.

    His best season was 2007 when he hit .251 while playing in 90 games, starting 72 at SS, 2B and 3B.

    Wilson also pitched one inning in 2007 and 2009 and now has a 0.00 career era. Maybe he can help out in the pen when he isn't playing middle infield.

    Wilson will help out in the middle infield while Luis Rodriguez and Everth Cabrera are on the DL.

    Dont expect much from Wilson. He is as bad or worse with the glove than Edgar Gonzalez of Luis Rodriguez at SS and has not been a great hitter at either the minor league or major league level.

    The Padres also sent down RH reliever Edwin Moreno and called up RH reliever Greg Burke and LH reliever Joe "Becky" Thatcher.

    Burke has been dominating at AAA as has Thatcher.

    Those of you who follow this blog know I am not enamored of Thatcher. Thatcher has shown he is one of those guys that allows way too high of a percentage of inherited runners to score, while keeping his own ERA down. He doesn't help a team to win, but his stats look good.

    Lets hope Thatcher has learned something in his time at AAA This season.

    Changes the Padres don't need to make.

    Friday May 15, 2009

    Changes the Padres don't need to make.


    I keep reading alot of articles saying the Padres need to make drastic changes in their roster and to a certain extent those calls for changes are well placed. After all the Padres are in the midst of a 4-19 collapse with 11 straight losses on the road.

    For all of you, including Tim Sullivan over at San Diego's rag they call a newspaper, who are stupid enough to want to replace Kevin Kouzmanoff in the starting 8 with Will Venable, keep in mind that Venable has more strike outs than hits as well this season, and that is at the AAA level.

    In other words, Venable is NOT hitting any better than Kouzmanoff and you want to give him a regular starting job?

    That is downright idiotic. At least we know what Kouzmanoff can do and we also know that Kouzmanoff is a slow starter who will probably end up around .270 for the season with around 20 home runs if the last two seasons are any indication.

    I do believe the Padres need to make some changes, but throwing a #4 (at best) or #5 outfielder like Venable into a starting position is ludicrous.

    As a FOURTH or FIFTH outfielder, Macias at least plays spectacular defense so the runs he takes away with his defense may compensate for his mediocre bat on a part time basis, but Venable is playing below average defensively in CF this season, so his defense would not.

    Venable is not good defensively in CF as either Gerut or Hairston. Last year it graded out with Gerut at +5.8 UZR, Hairston +3.3 and Venable +2.4. At a +9.5 career UZR, Gerut is one of the better defensive CF in the game.

    And how long will it take Headley to begin to play defense at 3B at the level Kouzmanoff is currently playing? How many games will be lost until he does. 1, 2, more? Remember, Headley has not regularly played the position since 2007 and he does not even take gound balls at the position in practice currently.

    How many of you really believe, based on 44 abs against RHP this season, that Hairston should be a everyday starter? Especially given how poorly he has done of 650+ career at bats against RHP. Hairston's BA against RHP since May 1st of .242 has been much closer to his career average of .234/.294/.414/.709 and, as they always do, will continue to regress towards the mean as the season continues. ( VS RHP in 2008 - .224/.309/.399/.708)

    Hairston is good against LHP. Always has been (career - .287/.337/.549/.886, 2008 - .280/.316/.580/.896) and this season he has been a monster (.381/.447/.762/1.209). So platoon Hairston at ALL of the outfield positions against LHP if you want, but don't give him ANY position as an everyday starter. We have seen that dog, and it don't hunt.

    And if you trade away Peavy now, what is that saying to Gonzalez and the players you do want to sign long term about the teams commitment to winning? In my opinion it kills any chance of getting Gonzalez signed to an extension. Would you sign a contract knowing the team is not going to be any better than it is right now for several years to come?

    So those are changes the Padres absolutely should not make.

    So what changes do I think the Padres need to make?

    #1 Fire Bud Black - It is Black's job to get these guys to relax and perform and he has failed. No, he has not been given a big league squad and there have been a lot of injuries, but this team is still better than the 4-19 record they have in their last 23 games.

    #2 DFA Duaner Sanchez, and cut Luis Perdomo. Bring up Greg Burke and Even Scribner or Gabe DeHoyos to replace them and go with just 12 relievers. My last post was dedicated to Sanchez so I am not going to rehash that. Perdomo has simply not shown he has what it takes, yet. He may in a couple of years, but taking a Rule V guy that did not dominate at the lower levels is risky, and this gamble did not pay off.

    #3 Get Kyle Blanks ready to play LF. The Padres are already starting to get him some playing time in LF and once he is able to adjust to AAA pitching (he has hit just .200 over his past 10 games), he should also have had a chance to start 40 or 50 games in LF and be ready to make the jump later in the season.

    #4 Get Headley some time at 3B. As I mentioned above, Headley has not played the position reguarly since 2007 and is not taking ground balls at 3B now. Sit Kouzmanoff against some RHP that have been historically bad matchups for him and let Headley get a few starts at 3B. By the time Blanks is ready to be called up, Headley will have been able to play at least 5 or 6 games at 3B and have taken grounders in practive for a couple of months.

    #5 Play Jody Gerut. Gerut is a rhythm hitter and needs at bats daily to hit well. Gerut and Hairston is a great platoon by the numbers, but Gerut struggles against all pitching when he isn't out there daily. Gerut is also a better fielder than Hairston and has good power. As Tampa showed last season and several clubs are showing this season, good defense that takes away runs is as important to winning as bats that add runs. This is especially true in Petco, where runs are at a premium.

    #6 Start looking for new trainer and strength coach. While some of the injuries cannot be blamed wholy on them, their job is to condition the athletes on the Padres to minimize injuries, and given the fact that the Padres have been consistently among the top 5 in player days on the DL each of the past 8 seasons and are on pace to break 1100 player days on the DL this season, they are failing miserably.

    The Padres are the only team to have over 880 player days on the DL in the last 10 years and they have done it 5 times including the only 2 seasons over 1000 player days on the dl since they began keeping records of this stuff. REgardless of whether the players or anyone else says they like the trainers hee, their results stink.

    #7 Figure out how to turn Kouzmanoff's bat around. This guy hit everywhere he went before the Padres started tinkering with his swing. Maybe it is the Padres approach and not Kouzmanoff that is to blame here. SO Lefebvre do your job and figure it out. You can't trade him while he is hitting .229 and sending him down does no good since Headley would take a month or more to readjust to third base.

    So get Kouzmanoff hitting so you CAN trade him for help at SS or for the pitching staff when Blanks is ready to come up and take over LF.

    #8 Put Brian Giles back into the front of the rotation and sit him down and say, "Brian, we know you are having problems off the field. It is time to focus on doing your job and let baseball take your mind off those things. SO get out their and do what you do best, hit the damn ball."

    If you want to rest him, send Hairston or Gerut or even Macias out there against a few lefties since Giles has hit just .255 off LHP over the past 3 seasons and just .111 this season.

    #9 Trade for a decent everyday SS. Cabrera did well while he was here but it was 13 abs and he isn't expected back until Late June at the earliest. Luis Rodriguez is not the answer when he comes back. He is a below average defender and he is a slightly above replacement level hitter. He could be a good platoon player, but playing everyday seems to be beyond his abilities.

    So who can the Padres trade for? They are not going to get a top level prospect like Alcides Escobar or Yunel Esobar or even Jason Donald, but maybe a player like Argenis Diaz or Reid Brignac who is blocked by a ML player and a top prospect will be available for a package of prospects.

    #10 All Padres fans need to remember 4 words -

    REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN!

    What does that mean? It means that players will regress towards their career averages as the season progresses unless there is some underlying problem like an injury. So put them out there and let them play their way out of their slumps. Eventually they will start hitting enough ABOVE their career averages to end up near their career averages when the season is over. In other words there will be a hot streak to average out a slump at some point if you just shut up and let them play.

    I have had my say. Now What do you think?

    Thursday, May 14, 2009

    Why is Duaner Sanchez Still a Padre?

    Thursday May 14, 2009

    Why is Duaner Sanchez still a San Diego Padre?

    Sanchez continued his complete collapse as a pitcher with a 1.2 inning appearance in which he allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs as well as allowing an inherited runner to score.

    This outing raised his ERA to 9.00 on the season.

    He has just three scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances.

    So why is he still a Padre?

    Who will the Padres draft? Part Deux

    Thursday May 14, 2009

    Who Will the San Diego Padres Draft in the June MLB Amateur Draft?


    The draft is approaching and the Padres have their highest draft pick since 2004.

    At the number 3 overall pick, impact type players are certain to be available when the Padres turn comes up.

    For 2009 there is a glaring dearth of positional players that are expected to go high in the draft, but as many as 3 of them may go in the top 10 overall picks.

    In the first part of this article I profiled 4 players that the Padres have either been rumored to be interested in or whom the Padres are currently scouting heavily.

    In this section I will profile 6 players I think are high tools type players or players that the Padres should be scouting heavily.

    So who will the Padres pick and why?

    LHP Tyler Matzek of Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
    This 6'3" 190 lb lefty is among the most polished high school pitchers I have seen in many years. His delivery is absolutely effortless and his mechanics are spot on.

    While his fastball sits at 91-93, he can crank it up to 95 when needed and he has a two Plus secondary pitches in an 1-7 curve that is nasty and a slider that breaks late. He also mixes in an improving change up that could be a 4th plus pitch.

    He may not have #1 upside, but I can see him being a very good #2 in the major leagues for years to come.

    He may go as high as number two overall and the Padres could gain something they have not had in years, a dominating lefty starter.

    I can see him going to the Padres with the number 3 pick.


    OF Donovan Tate of Cartersville HS (GA) (Boras)

    The 6'3" 210 lb Tate may be the best overall athlete expected to be drafted in the first round. He is already committed to North Carolina as a Quarterback and wants to play baseball for the Tar Heels as well.

    Tate has blazing speed, his 6.4 in the 60-yard is .3 faster than any current player in the Padres system, and he throws a 92-93 mph fast ball.

    But it is as a hitter and an outfielder that most teams are looking at Tate. Tate is projected to have 80 speed, 70 arm and 60+ defense, while hitting with 20+ home run power as a professional.

    The drawbacks are that Tate is very raw as a hitter and is lacking in patience at the plate. Combine that with Boras as an agent/adviser and the fact that he has already committed to the University of North Carolina in football and that his father, Lars Tate, was a former NFL player and you have a potential signability problem.

    Tate may be the first high school player taken in the June Draft and he may fall out of the top 10 rounds depending on how hard teams feel it may be to sign him.


    RHP Aaron Crow - 1st round pick of the Washington Nationals (#9 overall) in 2008 out of the University of Missouri and current independent league Forth Worth Cats pitcher. (Boras)

    Crow is a 6'2" 205 lb power pitcher who is a fierce competitor. His fastball touches 96 mph and he normally sits 93-94 with with good command to both sides of the plate. He also throws a hard biting slider and a change up that shows real promise.

    He was drafted with the 9th overall pick by the "Natinals" in 2008, but they failed to come to terms and Crow went on to pitch for the Cats.

    A potential drawback is a hitch in his pitching mechanics that has many scouts leary of future injuries. It is the same type of mechanical flaw that most feel led to Mark Prior's devastating shoulder injuries.

    Where Crow goes in the June draft will depend heavily on how he pitches for the independent league Ft. Worth Cats who started their season May 4th. Crow threw 4 scoreless innings in his first start before giving way to the bullpen.


    RHP Zack Wheeler of East Paulding HS (GA)
    The 6′4, 180 Wheeler is long and lanky and undoubtedly will grow into his body over time. His fastball sits at 90-93 with good late movement and can hit 96. Many scouts believe that his velocity will increase as a professional as he adds some bulk.

    Wheeler's secondary pitches include a + hard slurve at 74-78 and change up that still needs work. He has a consistent delivery and good command of his fastball and slurve.

    Wheeler projects as a #1-#2 type pitcher and also to go in the top 10 on draft day and may go as high as #3, but is likely going to be drafted after the Padres pick at #3.


    LHP Mike Leake of Arizona State University
    At 6'0" 180 lbs, Leake is not an imposing figure on the mound, but he gets outstanding results.
    This season he has gone 12-1 in 13 appearances with a 1.47 era. In 97.2 IP he has given up just 59 hits while striking out 104 vs just 18 walks.

    His 2 seam fastball sits 88-92 with lots of late movement. He has good command over all of his pitches. His change up and curve have a sharp break and has went to a slider more this season. None of his pitches are ++, but he throws strikes and keeps batters off kilter by changing speeds and location. His delivery is smooth and compact and he works very quickly.

    Of all the people on this list, Leake may have the quickest path to the major leagues, but his ceiling is lower than many on here. In most books he projects as a #2 or most likely a #3 starter.

    Leake will probably be on the board long past the Padres pick at #3, but he will definitely be drafted in the top to middle of the 1st round.


    LHP Matthew Purke of Klein HS (Tx)
    At the beginning of the season Matthew Purke topped many lists of high school pitchers. A good but not outstanding prep season has seen him fall from a consensus top 5 pick to somewhere in the top-mid 1st round.

    The 6'3" 185 lb Purke throws from a 3.4 arm slot which gives his fastball good sink. His fastball sits at 89-92 and regularly touches 94. He has a plus curve, but his slider and change up need work. What worries many scouts most is his long delivery and "inverted w" mechanics. This means his hands break low and this puts stress on his shoulder as his hand catches up with his stride.

    Purke will probably still go in the top 10-12 in the 1st round, but I do not believe he will go at #3 to the Padres.


    A few other names have been thrown around by many of the MLB draft mavens, but the Padres are not known to have heavily scouted them so I would place them on a list of interesting players, but not likely to be drafted by the Padres at #3.

    They include:
    RHP Tanner Scheppers of the Independent League St. Paul Saints
    RHP Shelby Miller of Brownwood HS (Tex.)
    RHP Jacob Turner of Westminster Christian Academy (Mo.)


    Now the big question.

    Who do I feel the Padres SHOULD take in the draft?

    If he is available I think the best pick on the board is Dustin Ackley. He is a true 5 tool player.


    Who do I think the Padres WILL take?

    If he is still on the boad I believe the Padres will take Ackley. He is simply the best player on the board other than Strasburg. If he is not available I believe the Padres will either take Alex White of North Carolina or Aaron Crow of the Ft Worth Cats.

    I have had my say. Now what do you think?

    Who will the Padres take in the draft?

    Thursday May 14, 2009

    Who Will the San Diego Padres Draft in the June MLB Amateur Draft?

    The draft is approaching and the Padres have their highest draft pick since 2004.

    At the number 3 overall pick, impact type players are certain to be available when the Padres turn comes up.

    For 2009 there is a glaring dearth of positional players that are expected to go high in the draft, but as many as 3 of them may go in the top 10 overall picks.

    I will start with 4 college players that are either consensus top 10 or in the case of Grant Green were expected to be picked by the Padres prior to the college season on the basis of system need.

    So who will the Padres pick and why?

    Grant Green (Boras)

    Early in the year many said the Padres should go after an area of need and draft USC Shortstop Grant Green, but Green, whom the Padres drafted in the 14th round in 2006 out of high school and were unable to sign, has not hit for power in the 2008-2009 college baseball season and has committed 15 errors in just 44 games.

    Green's batting average of .368 through May 5th sounds good, but he has hit only 3 home runs and 22 extra base hits total. His 31-17 SO/BB ratio is not promising for a light hitting SS either.

    On most draft boards Grant Greens stock has fallen precipitously and he is now expected to go in the middle of the 1st round.

    I do not expect the Padres to draft Green with their pick in 2009.


    Alex White

    Alex White of the University of North Carolina is another player that has been mentioned in connection with the Padres. White is a right handed sinkerball pitcher that can hit 95-96 on the gun. He also has a plus slider that he often uses an his out pitch.

    In 2009 White has a 7-2 record with a 3.45 ERA in 11 starts. In 75.2 IP he has given up 61 hits and 31 walks while striking out 82.

    After a 13-3 record with a 2.83 ERA in 15 starts and just 78 hits and 42 walks vs 113 strike outs during his sophomore year in 2008, many expected White to improve on that record in 2009, but his draft stock has not dropped.

    He is still a good candidate to go #3 overall to the Padres in 2009.


    Dustin Ackley (Boras)

    White's teammate, 1B/OF Dustin Ackley is another prospect that is projected to go high in the draft. the left handed batting Ackley is hitting .400 with a ridiculous .726 slugging percentage and 15 home runs in 49 games. He is far and away the best college hitting prospect available in the draft.

    The problem for the Padres is that he has primarily played first base following Tommy john surgery in July 2008. First base is a position of strength already in the Padres system headed by Adrian Gonzalez at San Diego with Kyle Blanks, the power hitting Felix Carrasco and 2008 1st round pick Allen Dykstra following close behind.

    Many feel Ackley will move back to the outfield as a professional and while there are many outfielders in the Padres system with potential, none have stepped up and showed they can be a major league starter.

    I would not be surprised at all to see the Padres pick Ackley with their #3 pick and move him to a corner OF position.


    Kyle Gibson

    This University of Missouri pitcher burst out of the gate so strongly this season that many felt he may go as high as 32 overall. While he has come down to earth a little, Gibson still has a 9-3 record in 13 starts with a 3.73 ERA. Gibson has given up 84 hits and 15 walks in 91.2 innings while striking out 115.

    Gibson has a low 90's fastball which many scouts believe will improve in velocity as he bulks up from his current 208 lbs on a 6'6" frame. He also has a very good change up which he commands well and a devastating slider which grades out as a ++.

    While Gibson lacks the high upside potential of some of the other pitchers in the 2009 draft, because of his outstanding control and size, in my opinion he is the most likely to reach his full potential as a professional.

    In the past the Padres have chosen a large number of college pitchers with good control, so do not be surprised to see Gibson's name called when the Padres pick at #3.


    In my next post I will cover 6 other players whose names may be called when the Padres pick in the 2009 Amateur Draft.

    LHP Tyler Matzek of Capistrano Valley HS (CA)

    RHP Aaron Crow - 1st round pick of the Washington National in 2008 out of the University of Missouri and current independent league Forth Worth Cats pitcher.

    OF Donovan Tate of Cartersville HS (GA)

    RHP Zack Wheeler of East Paulding HS (GA)

    LHP Mike Leake of Arizona State University

    LHP Matthew Purke of Klein HS (Tx)

    Luis Rodriguez headed to the DL

    Thursday May 14, 2009

    Luis Rodriguez headed to the DL.

    San Diego Padres shortstop Luis Rodriguez is headed to the disabled list with an ankle injury he sustained rounding first base on Wednesday.

    This injury continues a pattern of highly elevated level of injuries that stretches back to 2001. The Padres were on pace for nearly 1100 player days on the DL before Rodriguez came up lame with an ankle injury that could sideline him for a month.

    The Padres have almost a complete dearth of major league ready middle infield depth after allowing Travis Denker to be claimed on waivers in April, one of the biggest bone head moves management has made this season.

    The shortstop that is closest to major league ready, the slick fielding Sean Kazmar, is currently hitting .162 in his first season at AAA Portland. The only other option is Brett Dowdy, a lead glove with a decent bat but no power.

    So what options does that leave the Padres?

    The Padres could play Chris Burke daily, but Burke has hit just .226 against RHP.

    They could move David Eckstein to short until Luis Rodriguez returns and play Edgar Gonzalez at 2b, but Eckstein is 34 with rapidly fading range and Edgar Gonzalez is a butcher in the field.

    Everth Cabrera is still at least a month away from returning from his own stint on the disabled list and while a promising prospect, he has only had 13 abs above low A.

    If Kouzmanoff was hitting they could make a trade to bring in at least a good SS prospect or some help for the pitching staff, but he is currently hitting .216.

    So what will the Padres do?

    Probably nothing. There is not much they can do other than start Burke daily and bring up a temporary fill in from the farm.

    Tuesday, May 12, 2009

    Will Blanks be in San Diego Soon?

    Tuesday May 12, 2009

    Will Kyle Blanks be in San Diego soon?


    The San Diego Padres offense has been sputtering as of late and you can hear the groundswell of fans clammering for the Padres to call up promising young prospect Kyle Blanks.

    Corey Brock, beat writer for the Padres on MLB.com, talked about Blanks on his blog earlier this afternoon.

    He asked if Blanks should be brought up or allowed to get some time in LF at Portland and a little seasoning against AAA pitching before getting the call.

    With all the hulabaloo I thought I would throw in my two cents.

    In my opinion Kyle Blanks is the type of athlete that could adjust to LF or RF for that matter, but the key word is adjust. Bringing a 22 year old kid up to the major leagues and asking him to not only adjust to a much higher level of pitching, but also a whole new position is asking for trouble. I don't think he would do well at either to start.

    Kyle Blanks has hit well at each level he has played at as a professional and will undoubtedly be a good major league ball player. In fact his batting has improved as he took the steps up the ladder.

    But Blanks has been given a full season at each level to hone his craft and learn to adapt to a higher quality of pitchers. The jump from AAA to the majors may be the biggest jump of all and we would be asking Blanks to do it after just 2 months at the AAA level. Givin his performance as of late, that may be a mistake.

    Over the past week Blanks has faced some of the best pitching to date this year including major league pitchers John Lackey and Ervin Santana, who are on rehab assignments with Salt Lake City, and Sean O'Sullivan the Angels top RHP prospect.

    The results?

    Blanks hit 5/26 - .192, with 2 home runs, 1 walk, 11 strike outs, 5 runs scored and 4 rbi in 7 games.

    In other words he struggled a bit.

    That is not to say that Blanks will continue to struggle, just that it is the first time he has had an extended stretch batting against that caliber of pitcher. He needs time to adjust.

    What do I think the Padres should do with Kyle Blanks?

    Give him some time at AAA to adjust to the pitching and some time to play LF.

    Once Kevin Kouzmanoff starts hitting in June as he has done each of the past two years, start shpping him with the goal of trading Kouzmanoff away around the deadline to bring in some pitching or middle infield help.

    Then if Blanks is looking steady in LF and has continued to hit at least at his currrent level of .289/.391//.544/.935, bring him up to San Diego.

    Once you bring up Blanks, play him daily. Just put him in LF for the rest of the season and let him know he can go out and play without any pressure to produce immediately.

    Then you can move Headley to third base, his natural position.

    In the meantime give Kouzmanoff an occassional day off or let him be the DH against the AL and give Headley some games at third to get him re-acclimated to a position he hasn't played regularly since 2007.

    With the plethora of good fielding outfielders coming up the farm system, the Padres will have several to choose from to fill RF after Giles is not renewed for 2010 or they will have $9 million extra in the budget to go out and get a free agent outfielder to compliment Gerut and Hairston.

    Jason Bay, Rick Ankiel, Rocco Baldelli, Bobby Abreu, and Xavier Nady are all names that could and probably will be considered to fill the roster spot being vacated by Giles. although Bay and Abreu will probably be out of the Padres price range.

    I think this will serve the Padres well and put them in a better position to win in the rest of 2009 and the years to come.

    I have had my say. Now what do you think?