Report from the Caribbean

Monday November 23, 2009

The annual whirlwind Caribbean trip is over.

4 countries, 9 games, more than 24,000 air and road miles and 16 days later and finally back to San Diego.

This year we were accompanied by some old friends from college. Go Lobos!

As usual we got to see some great talent, fun baseball with fanatic fans, and a great swath of beautiful third world countries.


Here is a short list of players I was impressed with and some names to remember.

From Liga Mexicana del Pacifico

- Thomas Diamond of Aguilas de Mexicali. On our first stop we saw this absolutely dominant reliever . A low to mid 90's fastball with tremendous movement and a devastating curve. He's a 26 year old former 1st round pick and uber prospect who is a minor league free agent after pitching for Frisco and OKC in the Rangers system last season. Tommy John surgery in 2007 cost him the entire 2007 and a part of the 2008 season and it looks like he's back.

- Local boy Mike McCoy. He just may be the fastest white boy I have ever seen. He went 1st to 3rd on an infield single. Let me say that again. He is so fast he went from 1st to 3rd on an infield single to the right side. Amazing! He is a SS and not a great fielder so we may never see him in a Blue Jays uniform, but he is sure fast.

Padres farm hand Jesus Lopez is really not getting any playing time on the veteran laden Algodoneros de Guasave. I don't know if that is by design, Padres wishes or because of injury. Wanted to see him play and then he was not in the lineup. Instead we saw Luis Borges who cannot hit his way out of a wet paper bag.

Another Padres farm hand, Gabe Dehoyos, has continued to be the best closer in the Pacific league this season. He leads the league with 11 saves and a 2.25 era in 15 appearances, He has 17 SO in 16 IP while walking just 3. DeHoyos will be 30 early in the 2010 season and he doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but he just seems to miss bats consistently.


From our sleepless stay in the land of Catchers, the Liga Venezuela Beisbol Profesional

- Catcher Josh Thole of the New York Mets farm system and the league leading Leones de Caracas. Not only did he hit for average, he had a .508 OBP with a 8/23 K/bb rate. Thats right, nearly 3 times as many walks as strike outs.

- Catcher Wilson Ramos of the Twins farm system and the Tigres de Aragua. While Thole has been the quintessential contact hitting catcher Ramos has shows incredible power hitting 6 home runs while having a .374/.434/.635/1.069 line. Ramos did allow 2 steals in two attempts in the two games we saw him catch, but drove in 3 runs.

Love to see the Padres trade for either of those two.

We didn't get to see Sean Gallagher play, but from what we heard he has not gained his control. walking as many as he struck out. Padre utility man Oscar Salazar is also playing in Venezuela this winter as well but he plays for the Tiburones de La Guaira. He is hitting .298/.358.


Welcome to the República Dominicana. Our longest stop and the only one in which we took a day off from baseball when we weren't flying from place to place. What incredibly warm and beautiful beaches and people this place has!

- Conor Jackson of the Arizona Diamondbacks has seemed to overcome Valley fever, a disease frm fungus in dust, while playing for the Leones del Escogido in the decidedly un-dusty Liga Beisbol Dominicano. He has completely dominated the league hitting more than 50 points higher than the next highest batter with a .425/.561/.589/1.150.

- Wesley Wright is a 5'10" (maybe 5'11" in cleats) whisp of a pitcher who can bring it. He mowed down 10 in 5 innings for the Toros del Este in the game we saw him pitch while allowing just 2 hits. He should find a starting spot on the Astros club next season.

- Carlos Gomez was part of the trade from the Twins for JJ Hardy. If what we saw was any indication of his skills, this is a totally one sided trade in the Brewers favor. This 24 year old kid can cover some serious ground in the outfield. WOW!

We came here hoping to see Simon Castro and Jackson Quezada of the Padres pitch, but only Castro has seen any time on the mound here and he has had only one appearance all season. Another Padre we also expected to see play, Felix Carrasco, has not seen an time either. Felix has had the misfortune of playing behind the hottest player in the league, Conor Jackson.

The only Padres farm hand we did get to see was Luis Durango. In the game we saw he went 1 for 3 with a BB and a SO and he played CF. I think he will get a shot at being a platoon player in the Padres outfield.


Our last stop was Puerto Rico. 2 days, 2 games and on to Miami and San Diego. We got there just a couple of games into the season so we did get to see most of the kids we were looking to see.

- Remember this name. Giovany Soto. No not the catcher. This kid is a lefty pitcher for Lobos de Arecibo and the Detroit Lions farm system and he is good. He is a beanstalk (6'4" and 150 lbs dripping wet), but at just 18 years old he showed poise and great stuff. As he begins to put some meat on his bones his low to mid 90's velocity should improve and time in professional ball should improve his control. Look for him to be pushing for a starting spot in the Tigers rotation in 3-4 years.

- Brian Bogusevic of Indios de Mayaguez and the Houston Astros can rake. Not only that, but he is a VERY good in centerfield. It does not seem that he will have the power to break the starting lineup for the Astros, but a combination of a good eye, a high BA and real good speed should give him the chance to be a platoon player. At 26, he is a little old for a top prospect, but expect him to get some time in the Astros roster in 2010.

- Nate Schierholtz of the Gigantes de Carolina will probably start the 2010 season as the starting RF for the SF Giants. He was really hot in the game we saw and the scouts we sat with said he was working on staying back on pitches to gain a little more time to hit the ball the other way.

We did get to see one Padres farm hand play her, Emmanuel Quiles of the Lobos de Arecibo who came in to pinch run late in the game and then took his place behind the plate for the final 1/2 inning. Can't really say much about his play. Talked to his manager, long time minor league catcher Pat Kelly, and several scouts about him and they say he is a great kid with a real passion and head for the game. I would not be surprised at all to see him make the Padres lineup in 2012-2013.

I know that I have been neglecting this blog while I was gone, but any trip through 4 countries and 8 cities over 16 days is by necessity a hectic event.

You will see more posts over the coming days including several I wrote on the road. So if you see something that seems a little dated, it is. I probably wrote it in some hotel in Caracas or Ponce or whatever airport we were in at the moment.

I feel very lucky to be able to make the annual pilgrimage to the Caribbean and glad to be back in the paradise we call home - San Diego.

- Web

Complete Game Shutout for Correia, Padres win 4-0

Friday September 25, 2009

Kevin Correia threw a complete game shutout and the San Diego Padres defeated the last place Arizona Diamondbacks 4-0 tonight at Chase Field.

Correia allowed just 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7 on 109 pitches for his first career shutout and the first for a Padres pitcher since 2006. It was an awesome performance by a guy I have pegged as a mediocre pitcher on occasion.

Correia has been outstanding the last 2 months going 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA in his last 11 starts and has lowered his era from 4.75 at the end of July to 3.89 after tonight's game. In fact he has not given up a run since the 2nd inning of a Padres loss to these same Diamondbacks on September 14th, a stretch of 20 innings.

Folks I love being wrong about things like that.

Padres are now 15-7 in September.

Padres continue to take it to division foes

Thursday September 24, 2009

The San Diego Padres came back from an early 3 run deficit to defeat the Colorado Rockies 5-4 tonight at Coors Field in Denver. The victory gave the Padres their 4th series win in the last five against division foes.

Padres starter Clayton Richard was shaky in the 1st inning allowing a 3 run home run to Tulowitzki after and Everth Cabrera throwing error and a Todd Helton single put men on 1st and 2nd.

Richard settled down after that to throw 5 scoreless innings, but did not get the decision. His line on the night: 6 innings, 7 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned, 2 walks, and 2 strike outs.

Luke Gregerson rebounded from giving up his first runs in the last 2 months in his last outing to throw 1 2/3 innings and record his first ML save. Adam Russell got the win for recording a single out in the 7th.

Cabrera's error was his 19th of the season. It sure seems that Cabrera only commits errors when the play is totally routine and the play tonight was about as routine as they come.

The Padres 6-7-8 hitters went 7 for 12 with 3 rbi and 4 runs scored to pace the Padres offense. Actually, Salazar (2-4 including a triple), Hundley (2-4 with his 8th HR of the year and a stolen base in the 8th inning), and Gwynn (3-4 with the game winning rbi in the 8th) pretty much WERE the Padres offense. Eckstein was his usual pesky self going 2-4 with a sac fly and Headley hit a single in the 8th, advanced to 2nd on a Venable sac bunt and scored on a Hundley single.

The sac bunt by Will Venable was a thing of beauty and I expressed on twitter at the time that I hoped he would teach Gwynn how to follow suit.

The Padres should give an assist to Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler for a total lack of hustle on a shallow hit to center in the 8th that allowed Chase Headley to score the tying run. Fowler jogged in on the ball hit in front of him and then made a lackluster toss to second base instead of trying to gun down Headley at the plate. Even if he hustled the play would have been close with Headley running from 2nd, but to not make any attempt was inexcusable.

Rockies starter Jason Hammel went 6 1/3 innings giving up 2 runs on 6 hits with no walks and 6 k's. Reliever Joe Beimel took the loss.

The Padres have now taken 2 series against the Rockies and one against the Dodgers and Giants in the month of September. All three are playoff contenders.

In fact the only team to take a series from the Padres this month are the last place Diamondbacks.

I really like what I have seen from the Padres in the 2nd half of this season. With 8 games to play the Padres are now 71-83 on the season. 8 games better than 2008. Playing .500 ball the rest of the way will the Padres 75 wins, an even dozen games better than 2008.

That has GOT to make you feel good about the prospects of a winning season in 2010 if the Padres go out and get a decent bat and one innings eating pitcher in FA or in trade.

Should Padres trade Kevin Kouzmanoff to make room for Chase Headley?

Is Headley Capable of Playing Third Full time?

Saturday September 19, 2009

There has been quite a bit of debate on the message boards and amongst fans and media about whether the Padres should keep both Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley.

Headley is a defensive liability in LF and many have argued that because he is younger, he should be moved to third base and Kouzmanoff traded.

The rationale is that because Headley was once an average fielder at third base, that he can adequately replace Kouzmanoff's defense at third base and Kouzmanoff's offense.

Kouzmanoff has played nearly flawless defense this season, with just 3 errors and a .990 Fielding percentage. Both would rank as MLB records for the position if the season ended today.

Headley committed his 5th error at the position today in his 16th start of the season. Since Kouzmanoff went down with an injury on September 8th, Headley has committed 2 errors in 9 games.

5 Errors in 16 starts is a 50 error pace for a season and simply unacceptable. 2 errors in 9 starts is a better rate, a 36 error per season pace, but it is still not good. If Headley were somehow able to cut that in half by playing daily, it is still 18 errors per season. Many too many for a player with Headley's limited range.

In fact, cutting his error rate of the past 9 games in half would still leave Headley as nearly the worst full time 3B in the league defensively over a season.

Headley is nearly three years younger than Kouzmanoff and has 1 1/2 less seasons at the major league level, so in fairness that does have to be taken into account.

So that leads to the question, will Headley improve enough over the next 1 1/2 seasons to overcome the difference in defense? Will Headley's home run totals nearly double over the next year and a half? Can he drive in 50% more runs?

Headley demonstrated better power numbers in his first season than in 2009. The sub .400 slugging percentage and lack of home run power (he is hitting just 1 hr every 42 abs) does not bode well for a player at a Corner Infield (or Outfield) position that is expected to be a run producer.

Headley is still only 25 and may develop more power, but I think over the past two months we have been seeing pretty much the best we can expect from him in the future.

He has hit .296/.367/.400 with 11 doubles and 2 home runs in 159 at bats.

Is that enough?

Bell blows first save at home

Saturday September 12, 2009

The San Diego Padres led every inning going into the 9th.

Closer Heath Bell came in and it looked like the Padres would continue to be hot and take the 1st game of the series with Colorado.

And then the unthinkable happened. Heath Bell couldn't find the plate and walked two of the first 4 batter and gave up 4 runs for his first blown save of the season at Petco Park.

Game over. Padres lose 4-1 to the Colorado Rockies.

A bevy of Padres relievers had pitched 8 scoreless innings prior to Bell's appearance. Led by Mujica who threw 4 scoreless innings and two effective appearances by Sean Gallagher and Adam Russell.

Then Joe "Becky" Thatcher was brought in to face the lefties in the 7th and nearly gave the game away. Thatcher hit Helton, struck out Hawpe, and then gave up a double to Hawpe. How he got a "hold" for that one I don't know. For Thatcher's second straight appearance and third in his last 5, Gregerson had to come in and pull his fat out of the fire.

Regardless of the hype from Corey Brock at mlb.com, Thatcher has just not been effective in pressure situations. In 21 opportunities he has just 4 holds.

Sometimes stats like ERA just don't tell the real story. Thatcher has a great ERA. Mostly because he only allows other pitchers runs to score and he is taken out of the game after he fails to get out his batters out like last night, but without giving up a run. Others are left to clean up his messes and luckily for the Padres, Gregerson and others have been able to on a consistent basis.

When Gregerson or other relievers come in and pick him up, Thatcher's ERA doesn't go up even though he was totally ineffective, like his last 3 of his last 5 appearances.

Even holds can be a deceiving stat. 2 of Thatchers 4 holds have been in situations where he came in for a single batter. Last night he was totally ineffective, hitting a batter and giving up a double before being pulled, but he still got a hold.

Since being called up on July 20th he has 3 appearances in which he failed to even record an out and another 6 in which he was pulled mid-inning. In other words in 25 appearances since he was recalled from the minors, he has failed to get the job done 36% of the time including 3 of his last 5 appearances, but did it without giving up an earned run. So Thatcher's stats look good, but he still failed at his job. Someone else, namely Luke Gregerson lately, had to come in and saved his worthless behind.

Do you get the idea I don't like Joe "Becky" Thatcher? Well you would be correct. What I don't like even more is the media campaign by Brock and others to push this loser on the fans of San Diego.

Ok enough of my influenza influenced tirade.

Don't Look Now

Wednesday September 9, 2009

Don't look now, but the Padres could very well finish the 2009 season with a better record than the Mets.

As it stands tonight the surging Padres have a 63-78 record (.447) and the slumping Mets have a 62-77 record (.446).

While the Padres went 15-14 in August and have won 6 of their last 8 games, the Mets went 12-17 in August (1-3 against the Padres) and have lost 5 of their last 8 games.

Ouch. Do you think Omar Minaya should keep his job if that happens? After all the Mets were widely picked to win the NL East over the World Champion Phillies before the season started.

Yes, the Mets have been struck by a Padre-like run of injuries this season, but with a payroll north of $130 million, is there any excuse for having a worse record than the Padres and their $36.7 million payroll?

2nd straight good outing from LeBlanc in Pads win

Wednesday Sept 9, 2009

Happy 9/9/9!

Looks like Wade LeBlanc was celebrating the day as he collected his 2nd straight victory in the San Diego Padres 4-2 win over the San Francisco Giants at Alphabet Soup Park.

LeBlanc pitched a heck of a good game too allowing just 2 runs on 4 hits and 3 walks. 2 of those walks came to start the 8th inning, but Luke Gregerson came in with 2 on and no outs and shut the Giants down.

Adrian Gonzalez provided all the offense the Padres would need driving in 3 runs on a single in the first with Everth Cabrera on 3rb base and a booming home run to left field, his 37th of the season, in the 3rd inning.

Oscar Salazar added an insurance run in the 6th with a solo shot of his own.

Cabrera stole his 22nd and 23rd bases of the season to move him into 4th place on the Padres list for rookies behind Ozzie Smith, Alan Wiggins and Roberto Alomar. 1 more SB and he will tie Alomar's total amassed over 143 games in 1988.

The Padres have now won FIVE straight series including 4 on the road and put up double digit hits for the 4th time in 8 games this month.

Barry Zito took the loss for the Giants going 5 innings and giving up 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks with 2 k's.

Correia has great outing

Wednesday September 2, 2009

San Diego Padres starting pitcher Kevin Correia pitched into the 8th inning for just the second time this season throwing 7 2/3 shutout innings to improve his ERA to 4.29 on the season.

After two straight mediocre outings in which he gave up double digit hits in each, Correia rebounded strongly to shut out the struggling Nationals on just 3 hits and 2 walks for the win over the worst team in baseball. It was Correia's 10th win of the season in 28 starts.

The Padres offense looked anemic to start the game,before busting out for 5 runs in the 6th inning against Nationals starter John Lannan.

Nationals pitchers walked 9 Padres with Lannan walking 5 and reliever Jorge Sosa walking 3 more.

Adrian Gonzalez led the charge with a double that drove in Everth Cabrera and David Eckstein with 2 outs in the 5th. After Kevin Kouzmanoff was intentionally walked, Chase Headley drove in Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff with a double to the gap in RF. Will Venable continued to be hot at the plate, going 2 for 4 with an RBI single in the 5th. He raised his batting average to a team high .275

Kouzmanoff on pace for record season

Kouzmanoff on pace for record season

Wednesday September 2, 2009

San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is currently on pace for an NL record for fielding percentage at his position.

His .989 fielding percentage leads all of baseball in 2009. Vinny Castilla owns the current mark for fielding percentage by a third baseman at .984 set in 2004.

Kouzmanoff also has just 3 errors in 283 chances going into last night's game.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, no third baseman has had fewer than 6 errors in a season in which they had 300 total chances.

With 27 games left on the schedule, Kouzmanoff will certainly get to 300 total chances.

We could be watching history Padres fans.

Mat Latos starting to show signs of wearing down

Wednesday August 19, 2009

Promising San Diego Padres prospect Mat Latos is showing signs of tiring after throwing 109 2/3 innings this season over 3 levels of baseball from A ball to the majors.

Tonight he gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks through 3 2/3 innings in the Padres 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. He consistently left his pitches up in the zone and even though he was consistently hitting 96-97 mph on the gun, he got pounded in the 3rd and 4th innings.

With the Padres publicly saying they don't want him to go any more than double his 56 innings pitched in 2008, this was probably the last we will see of Latos starting for the Padres in 2009.

We may see a couple of outings from him coming out of the bullpen, but I doubt the Padres are willing to take a chance on him injuring himself just to extend his stay in San Diego in what is pretty much already a lost season for the team.

I would presume that after what we saw in his first 4 starts, Latos WILL be back in a Padres uniform to start the 2010 season.

Sean Gallagher is about ready to join the team and Carrillo redeemed himself in last nights start after a shaky 1st start, so Latos does not need to pitch just to fill a slot in the rotation.

Poreda may also be called up to fill his spot in the rotation.

Surprise Surprise Surprise - Krasovic misses the facts again

Wednesday August 19, 2009

At least he is consistent. Getting fired by the Union Tribune has not spurred Tom Krasovic into checking the facts before putting his opinion out there on his blog.

In his most recent blog post, Krasovic says "Breaking from their culture under Sandy Alderson ... the Padres are no longer predisposed to drafting a college player in the first round."

Unfortunately, once again he didn't check the facts. The Padres have taken a high school player in the first round each of 2006 to 2008. Decker, Cumberland and Burke.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?query_type=franch_round&team_ID=SDP&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg


Krasovic also says that in 1994 Moores "inherited a major league roster loaded with power arms".

Here is the roster.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SDP/1995-pitching.shtml

Led by Joey Hamilton, the staff included Andy Ashby, Andy Benes, Glen Dishman and Fernando Valenzuela. Scott Sanders also had 15 starts.

Hamilton's fastball sat 90-92.
Ashby's fastball sat at 88 mph. Well actually 87.6 for his career, but I was giving him the benefit of the doubt.
Benes could bring it. A true power pitcher.
Fernando was a screw ball pitcher.
Dishman sat in the mid to high 80's
Sanders sat 90-92, Occasionally hitting 94. He jsut wasn't an effective pitcher.

You make up your own mind how loaded with power arms the 1995 team that went 70-74 was. I would guess one power pitcher of 5 makes it loaded in Krasovic's mind.

Krasovic also says that "the Padres are deep into talks with a switch-hitting, 16-year-old outfielder who'll likely join other newcomers at their Dominican complex by month's end. A $450,000 agreement is in place."

Jairo Kelly and Humberto Valor both signed contracts of about $135k. They were considered the 24th and 25th best International players to be available this season for free agent signings.

So who exactly is this mystery OUTFIELDER?
Here is the list of the top 25 players from Baseball America.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2009/268478.html

Do you see an outfielder on there?

Yup. Only one, Luis Jolly. He turned down a reported $850k to sign with the Phillies. Maybe he is the one who is going to sign with the Padres for $450k, but he is certainly not a mystery player. He did work out at the Padres facility on Thursday.

Perhaps its actually Edgar Ferreira, a LHP the Padres had work out for them on August 11th at their Dominican facility that they are about to sign?

Either way its not a secret that Krasovic is suddenly breaking the story on.

Krasovic quotes an unnamed "AL Talent evaluator" who says he likes Everett Williams because he is a "5-foot-10ish kid, but he's strong, he can hit, he's a good athlete".

Hey Kras, is this the same "Al Talent Evaluator" you quoted when you were still at the UT that said he didn't like Jaff Decker, because his body type would predispose him to getting chunky as he got older?

Decker, like Williams, is a 5'10" 190-200 lb kid that can hit, throw and steal bases.

Guess that fact escaped you when you wrote those articles about Williams.

Later in his blog post, Krasovic says that you have to credit Alderson with the Tate signing because he budgeted $6 million for the Padres first pick in the draft ("Credit Alderson for helping to lay the groundwork to the Tate deal") and then in the very next paragraph says, " Whether Alderson would've approved $6 million for a high school player, though, is questionable. The Padres took a college player first in all four of his years as CEO, and I'm told that wasn't coincidental."

You can't have it both ways Kras. Either Alderson is to be given credit for budgeting $6 million to sign Tate, or he isn't.

As to Alderson not signing High School players in the first round, see the first section of this article.

Krasovic says, "As a Diamondbacks executive, Moorad endorsed the first-round selection of "high upside" prep players such as Justin Upton and Jarrod Parker."

I guess he is trying to imply is that Moores and the Padres didn't take "high upside" prep players. We have already debunked that myth.

What Krasovic also conveniently leaves out is that the Diamondbacks picked 1st and 9th overall respectively to get those two players. The Padres have not picked in the top 16 since they took Matt Bush, a top 10 prep talent, in 2004.


I can't really find much Krasovic got correct in his blog post as usual.Don't they teach you to do FACT CHECKING in journalism classes in college? Or does Krasovic just intentionally choosing to avoid making sure his posts are factual in order to be more sensationalistic?

Latos has lots of Minor League company for Big League debut

Latos has lots of Minor League company for Big League debut

Sunday July 19, 2009

Mat Latos takes the mound today with many minor league players around him to help him feel comfortable, including his AA catcher .

In fact only the slumping Adrian Gonzalez (.235 in June and .132 in July - can you say, "I have given up on this season" any clearer?) and Chase Headley, who has been consistent in his mediocrity this season, were Padres starters to begin the season.

Going around the diamond you find the AA Latos throwing to the AA Lobaton then Gonzalez at 1B, AAA Rodriguez at 2B, Low A Cabrera, Headley at 3B, AAA Macias in LF, AAA Gwynn in CF and AAA Venable in RF.

Today at Petco Park we have the San Diego Mission Beavers facing the Colorado Rockies.

I guess it makes sense that a minor league type crowd of about 10,000 will watch Latos make his debut. After all a minor league type team is on the field.

I guess I am one of those to blame for attendance like that at today's game. I had tickets and decided not to go.

I tried to GIVE the tickets away all week and found no takers. Found absolutely no interested parties in two front row tickets. I guess that is as good of an indication of how the rest of the season is going to go attendance wise as anything a marketing survey might find.

So Moorad, Moores and Garfinkel - Give me a reason to renew my season tickets. Shoot, give me a reason to actually attend any more games this season.

Keep me in the loop on your plans. Help me to be excited about Padres baseball again. Or look forward to many more crowds like todays.

Another Padre Pitcher Goes on the DL

Monday June 8, 2009

Well here we go again. Another Padres pitcher headed to the DL.

Luis Perdomo was placed on the DL today with a strained knee. Since he is a rule V draftee, I am not sure if we will se him in San Diego again before the rosters are expanded in September.

This is already the 6th pitcher to see time on the DL. OUCH!

The good news is that reliever Mike Adams returned from his long stint on the DL after shoulder surgery in the off season. Adams was extremely good for the Padres last season, but don't expect him to come in and be as good immediately after surgery and a long stay on the DL. Gregerson and Mujiica will probably continue in their late inning roles.

The Padres sent down SS Chris Burke and called up Wade LeBlanc and Edwin Moreno to bring the pitching staff to 13 in the wake of the 18 inning game yesterday.

That leaves the Padres with just the .103 hitting Josh Wilson at SS until Luis Rodriguez returns frm the DL at the end of the week. Wilson has no options left and would ahve had to pass through waivers to be sent down. With so little depth at the position in the organization, the Padres sent down Burke.

He even sounds like his daddy.

Saturday June 6, 2009

After being on base 5 times in 5 at bats tonight (a single, a double and 3 bb), the post game interview let us hear that not only has Jr hit like his HOF daddy, he even sounds like him.

Oh yeah, and the Padres won the game over the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4.

After a shaky start in the first when he allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, a passed ball and a hbp, Kevin Correia settled down and shut down the D'backs for the next 5 innings to get his 2nd win of the season. In all he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 walk and a hbp in 6 IP.

Chase Headley started his 1st game at 3B this season, but gave way to Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 7th inning after being hit by a pitch for the 2nd time in the game by D'backs pitchers.

After not scoring a run in the first 14 innings of the series, the Padres exploded for 6 runs in the 6th inning.

Will Venable started it out with a double to right, Blanco moved him to 3rd with a sac fly and Chris Burke drove him home with a single. Edgar Gonzalez flied out for the 2nd out. Then it got fun. Gwynn Jr. walked and Eckstein drive in Burke. Adrian Gonzalez was walked to load the bases. Then Headley took a pitch in the leg from Dan Schlereth to drive a run. Giles drives in two with a single and then the guy who started it all off in the 6th, drove in the 6th run of the inning with a single to left.

NICE Inning!

After a perfect inning by Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujiica gave up a solo shot to Upton in the 8th inning, Heath Bell came in for the 9th and got his 16th save after allowing a single run on a walk, a wild pitch, a sac, and ground out.

The Padres improve to 26-29 on the season.

Adrian Gonzalez has now been walked 15 times in the past 8 games. With no one to protect him in the lineup, Adrian is being pitched around by other teams rather than give him a chance to beat them.

MLB Mock Draft for 2009 - The Websoulsurfer Picks

Friday June 5, 2009

Mock Drafts are always tricky and this being my first stab at it, I will undoubtedly get much of this wrong. I am only hoping to get most of the guys that are picked in the first round correct.

With some teams picking for the best possible athlete, some picking for signability, and some picking for specific types of players, i.e. - college, high school, high upside, quickest to MLB, etc... it is almost impossible to get every one correct.

I have commented on some, but not all of the picks. Just the ones that I felt either deserved or needed a comment.

With that said I am sure I will get a lot of flack for some of my picks, but here goes:

1. Washington – Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
   Strasburg is the best player available, but I am not sure that the "Natinals" can get him signed after they pick him. They wouldn't budge off $3.65 million for Crow last year even after Crow dropped his asking price by a half million to $4 million. What makes anyone think they are ready to deal with Boras who is reportedly asking $50 million for Stras?
   
2. Seattle – Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina
   Ackley is the best college hitter hands down. The Mariners have also been scouting Scheppers and Matzek heavily so either may go with the #2 pick. Ackley will not get past #3 if the Mariners pass on him.
   
3. San Diego – Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats (Independent)
   Padres brass Kevin Towers and Grady Fuson have both been at recent starts of Crow's. On a team hurting for pitching help, he would be one pick that could make an impact quickly. If they think they can get him signed, you may see the Padres take the toolsy HS player Donovan Tate at #3. Knowing their history, I wouldn't count on that.
   
4. Pittsburgh – Bobby Borchering, 3B, Bishop Verot HS (FL)
   Pittsburgh is an emigma. They are the front runners to sign the best International Free agent this season, but are thought to be targeting Borchering who could fall as far as the middle of the 2nd round if they don't take him here.
   
5. Baltimore – Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints (Independent)
   Scheppers was expected to be a top 10 pick in 2008, but injured his shoulder. He has come back this season for the independent league saints and shown nearly the same velocity as before the injury (sits 94-96), but has struggled with command and his secondary pitches have been no where near the plate. Still, he has upside that will make him a top pick.
   
6. San Francisco – Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
   Matzek is about as polished of a high school pitcher as you are going to find. He throws a mid 90's fastball and 3 secondary pitches all with decent command.
   
7. Atlanta – Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)
   Atlanta likes to sign high upside high school players from the southeast and Wheeler sure fits the bill.
   
8. Cincinnati – Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
   I was not sure where to go here. The Reds have gone several different directions with their picks in recent years, but Gibson would be a safe pick that could make it to the majors quickly.
   
9. Detroit – Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO)
   Detriot has taken high school pitchers in 2 of the last 3 years and one is already pitching n the major leagues. Turner is their type of pick. A kid with great stuff (low to mid 90's fastball, a + curve and a developing change up) and a ton of potential.
   
10. Washington – Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia
    This is 100% a signability pick. After taking Strasburg who will probably not be signed until August 15th if at all, the "Natinals" will need to pick someone here they can sign quick and under slot. Poythress is a hard hitting 1B with a good eye. A "moneyball" type of player.
    
11. Colorado – Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
    White has great "stuff" and had largely been thought of as a top 5 pick prior to the 2009 season. He has struggled with command and has not had that bulldog mentality you look for in a number one and has dropped on most boards. Still, he throws mid 90's.
    
12. Kansas City – Grant Green, SS, USC
    Green fell off the charts with a slow start with the bat and troubles in the field. A late charge against PAC 10 opponents raised his batting average, but a lack of power and the fielding woes have caused many to start thinking of him as a 2B as a professional.
    
13. Oakland – Rex Brothers, LHP, Lipscomb
    At only 6'1" and 205, Brothers is not an imposing figure and his short arm delivery looks like it shouldn't be coming at you as hard as it is, but he sits 94-96 with good control and a plus slider. He should end up a close. Think a taller and much stockier Billy Wagner.
    
14. Texas – Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)
15. Cleveland – Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State
    
16. Arizona – Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ)
17. Arizona – Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
18. Florida – Chad James, LHP, Yukon HS (OK)
19. St. Louis – Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
20. Toronto – Kyle Heckathorn, lhp, Kennesaw State
    
21. Houston - Everett Williams, OF, McCallum HS (TX)
22. Minnesota - Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA)
23. Chicago (AL) – Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)
    Tate, who has committed to UNC to play both football and baseball may fall out of the 1st round entirely due to difficulty in getting him signed and a high asking price. It is thought he will be asking for a $6 million signing bonus on a ML contract or he will go to school.
    
24. Los Angeles (AL) – Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA)
    
25. Los Angeles (AL) – Max Stassi, C, Yuba City HS (CA)
    
26. Milwaukee – Drew Storen, RHP, Stanford
27. Seattle – AJ Pollock, OF, Notre Dame
28. Boston – Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)
29. New York (AL) - Tony Sanchez, C, Boston College
30. Tampa Bay – Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)
31. Chicago (NL) – Eric Arnett, RHP, Indiana
32. Colorado – Tim Wheeler, OF, Sacramento State

Others that could possibly go in the first round
Jiovanni Mier, SS, Bonita HS (CA)
Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Plant High School (FL)
Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
Brett Jackson, OF, Cal
Tommy Joseph, C, Horizon HS (AZ)
James Paxton LHP Kentucky
Andrew Oliver LHP Oklahoma State
Jared Mitchell, OF, LSU Reymond Fuentes, OF, Callego HS (PR)

San Diego Padres at #3 Overall
The Padres could go with any of 5 or 6 players at the #3 slot.

I would be happy with Crow, Matzek, Tate, Ackley if he is available, Turner, and even Rex Brothers (how many lefties can hit 96 with control?)

If the Padres take Minor I would be extremely disappointed. Minor is a good pitching prospect and could reach the majors quickly, but he is not projected as a top of the order starter. He is a #3 at best and more likely a #4-#5 type starter. The Padres already have entirely too many of this type of pitcher in their organization.

A pick like this at #3 would show that the Padres are only picking for signability and not to take the best possible athlete.

If the Mariners take Ackley I believe it is highly likely the Padres will take Crow with the #3. The FO brass have all been to see him pitch this season and he is a Padres type pick. In other words a college player.

If the Mariners don't take Ackley, the Padres will undoubtedly jump on the chance to have the best college hitter in the draft this year.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Another one bites the dust.

Wednesday June4, 2009

Another one bites the dust.

With Scott Hairston's bicep injury, yet another Padre went on the DL today. Will Venable was called up to take his place in the lineup due to a contusion on the left hand of Drew Macias.

That makes it seven players on the DL currently and nine players who have spent time there so far this season.

Last time I checked the Padres were on pace for 1100 player days on the DL in 2009 or just a few under their MLB record of 1200+ player days on the DL last season.

The record amount of injuries that plagued the Padres in 2009 is what doomed their season. Could they be on the way to another injury and loss filled season?

I sure hope not. It is hard watching your AAA players in a Padres uniform every day.

The good news is that Everth Cabrera has started his minor league rehab assignment and has to join the Padres by June 23rd and Mike Adams is also on a rehab assignment and could join the Padres as soon as Friday.

Once Again a Lefty Stifles the Padres Bats

Wednesday June 4, 2009

The Padres cannot hit left handed pitching.

Its real simple folks. When it comes to hitting lefties, the Padres stink.

It does not matter if they are good lefties or bad lefties, if they are pitching against the Padres they may as well be Randy Johnson or CY Young.

And the Padres showed just how inept they are against lefties again tonight by mustering only 4 hits against a mediocre lefty, JA Happ. If he threw 100 mph or had several devastating pitches I could understand it, but Happ pitches more like Wade Leblanc than Randy Johnson.

At least Bastardo threw mid 90's.

When a guy like Happ is dominating you with an 88-89 mph fastball and an 82 mph cutter you should be ashamed of yourselves.

Oh yeah, the Padres lost 5 - 1 and Chris Young was touched up for 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings. Burke gave up 2 runs in the 7th and the Padres are now 25-28 and 11 games out after the Dodgers won in Arizona.

I believe this is the first time the Padres have been swept at home this year, but if they do not get healthy and start hitting left handed pitching it won't be the last.

I am so fed up with it all tonight that I can't think of anything else to say.

What do you think?

Correia gets pounded in Padres loss - again

Monday June 1, 2009

Kevin Correia gave up two huge blasts to Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to start the 5th inning and the Padres lost to the Phillies 5-3 tonight in San Diego.

Correia gave up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings with 5 k's to move his ERA to 5.37 on the season. Reliever Luke Gregerson gave up his first earned run since giving up 3 on May 9th.

In the lone bright spots for the Padres, Adrian Gonzalez hit his league leading 21st home run and Scott Hairston followed it up with his 8th blast of the season in the bottom of the 6th to pull the Padres within a run. That was as close as they would get and former Padre Shane Victorino would drive in an insurance run for the Phillies in the 8th.

If Adrian Gonzalez played in any of the major cities of MLB he would be voted in as the All Star 1st baseman. He is hitting an astounding 1 home run for every 9 at bats. He is on pace for 66 home runs this season. That is made all the more astounding by two facts. 1- He plays half his game in Petco, the place home runs go to die. 2 - There is no one to protect him in the Padres lineup so teams are simply pitching around him half of the time.

Folks, one big bat in the lineup and this guy could hit 50 every year. He is THAT good. So enjoy him while you can. Some team is going to offer the Padres a whole minor league team for him soon and he will be playing in New York or Boston or some other big market.

Chase Headley got another night on the bench. He is struggling mightily, having struck out 49 times in 161 abs while hitting just .236/.309/.366/.675 with just 4 home runs. Hardly the hitter the Padres were expecting when they called him up last year.

You have got to wonder how long it will be before he is back in AAA trying to hone his hitting and Macias will be back in San Diego as the 4th outfielder?

Padres end 3-3 road trip with a 5-2 win over the Rockies

Sunday May 31, 2009

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 today at Coors Field in Denver to improve their record on the season to .500 at 25-25. The Padres 3-3 record on this road trip was a big improvement over their 5-16 road record going into it.

The game was highlighted by Adrian Gonzalez's league leading 20th home run and closer Heath Bell's league leading 15th save.

When was the last time Padres fans could talk about having two league leaders in a positive category on the roster?

Gonzalez crushed a 3 run shot to left field in the 3rd inning that staked Padres starter Chad Gaudin to a 3 run lead. Gonzalez is now the Padres all time leader in home runs through the end of May and he did it in just 179 at bats. Greg Vaughan had been the previous leader with 17 home runs through the end of May in his Padres record 50 home run season in 1998.

Gaudin went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 9 including 6 of the 1st 8 batters he faced while walking zero. Gaudin had been plagued by wildness recently, walking 16 in 15 2/3 ip over his last 3 starts prior to today, so it was nice to see him attacking hitters and throwing strikes.

One day after blowing his first save of the season, Bell came in and pitched a perfect 9th for his 15th save of the season.

As much as I howled about the trade that sent Jody Gerut to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the offensive production by Jr. He is 10/25 - .320 with 8 runs scored in 9 games. His defense has been less than stellar, but his offense has been outstanding.

The Padres now return to San Diego for a 6 game home stand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks starting tomorrow. The Padres split a series 2-1 with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia in April as part of a 9-3 start.

Kevin Correia will square up against the Phillies' Joe Blanton in the series opener tomorrow, followed by gimping Padres starter Jake Peavy against rookie Antonio Bastardo in his first major league start on Tuesday.

Can the Padres continue their .739 win percentage at home against the defending World Series champion Phillies and the division rival Diamondbacks?

Should the Padres trade Chris Young?

Saturday May 30, 2009

I know alot of the focus has been on the Padres dumping salary by trading away Jake Peavy, but I think the Padres may be able to get more value in trading Chris Young.

Young is pitching well and because of his relatively low salary requirements over the next 2 seasons ($4.5 million in 2009, $6.25 million in 2010 and a club option at $8.5 million in 2011) and being locked up for 2 seasons without a no trade clause, Young may actually bring back more value in trade than he is giving the Padres.

Lets face it, while a good pitcher, Young is not a stopper like Peavy. If you have one game you absolutely must win you are not going to run Chris Young out there.

But Young's numbers are very good and he holds high value.

The Phillies have a big need for pitching with Myers out for the season and they have some great young arms they could send back in return.

The White Sox obviously need pitching and would probably send the same package minus Lance Broadway back in trade for Young. The big question is how would he do in that bandbox?

The Marlins are looking for pitching help and could be tempted by Young's low salary in 2010 and 2011, although it is a bit more than they normally pay. Straight up for Uggla?

The Mets could use another starter and Young would be a perfect fit in that huge park. Would they be willing to part with Fernando Martinez and a couple of low level pitching prospects?

Seattle could use another starter and they are rumored to be shopping Bedard which would great a big hole in their lineup. The Padres were very interested in Garrett Olson prior to the season. Could a trade for Olson and a couple of prospects be in the works for Young?

Obviously there is a need on several teams and a couple that may even be good fits for a flyball pitcher.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Padres drop 2nd straight game to hapless Rockies

Saturday May 30, 2009

Well, now we know, Heath Bell is human. He blew his first save and the San Diego Padres lost 8-7 tonight to the Colorado Rockies.

But the game really hinged on errors. Both those called errors and those not called errors.
In the 3rd inning Gwynn Jr twice kicked a ball hit to the gap by Clint Barmes and it was called a triple. 2 batters later Garrett Atkins hit a sacrifice fly to deep center and Barmes scored.

Another error by Gwynn Jr. led to an unearned run. This was a game where the Padres really missed the defense of Jody Gerut.

And there you have the difference in the game.

Bell or another of the Padres relievers may have given up 4 runs in the 9th, but somehow I doubt that given how well they have pitched as a unit for the past 2 weeks.

On a day when the Dodgers also lost, I was hoping to see the Padres would win one and pick up ground in the NL West. It wasn't to be.

Padres shut out in Coors Field

Saturday May 30, 2009

A shutout in Coors? yup. The San Diego Padres lost 3-0 to the Colorado Rockies last night in Denver.

From what I have been reading there have been less than 10 shutouts in Coors field history and the Padres have been part of 4 of them.

Chris Young pitched well, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 ip, but both staffs got squeezed a bit by home plate umpire Jerry Layne and Young walked 6.

If Kouzmanoff does not allow a ball to slip under his glove in the 6th, this could have been a 1-0 game.

1-0 In COORS FIELD!

Adrian Gonzalez was pitched around in this game walking 3 times and will continue to be pitched around until a Padres hitter can prove he can consistently hit in the #5 slot.

Right now Padres #5 batters are hitting a MLB worst .231/.286/.319/.604. They badly need someone to step up and make teams pay when they put Adrian Gonzalez on base.

Scott Hairston is howing he is not the answer and has begun his annual swoon vs RHP. In two weeks he has dropped from .297 to .268 against right handed pitching while still hitting .389 against LHP.

Soon the Padres will be forced to platoon him in most situations and Gwynn is no Gerut against RHP.

Still, the Padres should be able to take 2 of 3 against the slumping Rockies. I guess it will depend on which Josh Geer shows up today.

Padres win 8-5 over the Diamondbacks

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Why does Bud Black seem to believe that starters have to go 6?

Time after time he leaves pitchers in after they have shown they are done.

Correia got hit because he was tired and elevating pitches in the 5th last night, so what does Black do? Bring him back to give up 4 more runs in the 6th.

That loss is squarely on the manager's shoulders. He should know the signs to look for in a tired pitcher, but he doesn't seem to have that ability.

Tonight Peavy struggles through the 6th, elevating his pitches and missing his spots. So what does Black do? He brings him back in the 7th so he can give up another run before giving way to Gregerson. Why did he come out at all?

Luckily, the Diamondbacks bullpen seems intent on giving up as many runs as they possibly can and immediately gave up 3 runs on 4 walks, 2 errors and 2 singles in the 8th inning tonight.

Even Greg Burke giving up a run in the 9th wasn't enough for the Diamondbacks, as the Padres beat them 8-5. It was just the 2nd run the Padres bullpen has given up since Duaner Sanchez gave up 4 runs on May 14th. Peavy went 6 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs while striking out 5 for his 5th win and Heath Bell pitched to one batter in the 9th for his 13th save.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his league leading 18th home run and the Padres 1 through 4 hitters went 8 for 17 and scored all 8 Padres runs.

The Padres are now 24-23 while the Diamondbacks fall to 20-27.

Have you voted for Adrian Gonzalez yet?

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Hey you!

Yes you. Have you cast your 25 All Star Game votes for Adrian Gonzalez yet?

Well what is keeping you from voting? It only takes a couple of minutes. Get to it!

Gonzalez may be the most deserving Padre All Star since Tony Gwynn Sr and without your help he may not make it.

So please, in the immortal words of Chicago politics, vote early vote often.

Why Padres CAN win the West

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.

I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.

I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.

(Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)

Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?

Padres
Brian Giles - .175
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
David Eckstein - .225
Edgar Gonzalez - .190
Chase Headley - .234
Chris Young - 4.76

Dodgers
Juan Pierre - .395
Casey Blake - .309
Orlando Hudson - .349
Brad Ausmus - .355
Randy Wolf - 3.02
Jonathan Broxton - 1.17

So what do all these players and their stats have in common?

They are all far off their career norms.

One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".

What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.

In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.

There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.

So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.

All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.

So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?

Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.

David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.

Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.

Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.

Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.

Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.

Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.

A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.

In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.


Now for the Dodgers.

Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.

Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.

Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.

Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.

Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.

Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.

Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.

These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.

Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.

Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.

Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.

In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.

Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?

Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?

That is a question for the baseball Gods.

My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

10 but not 11

Wednesday May 27, 2009

The San Diego Padres comeback fell short and they fell to the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 last night in Phoenix.

After starting pitcher Kevin Correia got in trouble by getting pitches up to the #8 and #9 hitters in the Diamondback's batting order and giving up two runs in the 5th, manager Bud Black made a critical mistake in sending him back out for the 6th inning.

Correia left pitch after pitch up in the zone and got pounded for 5 hits and 4 more runs.

Sometimes you wonder what Black is saving the bullpen for?

The Padres hitters once again mounted a valiant comeback against the Diamondbacks bullpen scoring 5 runs in the 8th and 9th innings, but came up just short on Kevin Kouzmanoff's fly ball to the warning track in the 9th.

Brian Giles continued his hot streak going 3 for 5 in the game. Giles has gone 6 for 10 in his last 4 games. He is still hitting just .189 on the season.

Diamondbacks starter Max Scherzer went 7 innings giving up just 6 hits and 2 runs while striking out 10 for his 2nd career win in 16 starts.

Tonights rubber game is at 6:40pm pacific and pits Padres Ace Jake Peavy against Diamondbacks rookie Billy Buckner.

Do you think Buckner may have gotten teased just a bit about his name? How many times was he asked about the error in 1986? I don't believe that this kid is related to Billy Buck, but I would love to hear about what having that famous (infamous?) name has put him through.

4 Straight Wins for the Padres

Tuesday May 19, 2009

The Padres winning streak is at 4 games.

Look what happens. I go away from posting on this blog and other sites for a couple of days and suddenly the Padres are on their longest winning streak of the season. The San Diego Padres have now won four straight games after sweeping the Cincinnati Reds and winning one tonight 2-1 over Barry Zito and the San Francisco Giants.

I must admit that I only got to see 7 innings of Jake Peavy's complete game win against the Reds on Sunday. I was running a fever in the morning and I was not quite sure my wife was going to let me out of the house, but once again treachery and old age won out over sweetness and common sense. For those other 21,000 that were there that day and that are now feeling a cold coming on, my wife assures me it is entirely my fault.

Peavy must have felt like Picasso, because he painted a masterpiece. 9 innings, 4 hits, ZERO walk and just 1 earned run on what may have been his only bad pitch of the game. How good was he? Of the 121 pitches he threw, 92 were strikes. Only 1 player had an extra base hit. Only 1 player got to 2nd base. In fact through 7 innings, only one Reds player was on base at all.

You have got to feel privileged any time you get to see a pitching performance like that.

Tonight we got to see another pitchers duel in which both Chris Young and Barry Zito pitched a great game. Unfortunately for Zito, who pitched 8 full innings and gave up just 5 hits, the 2 home runs he gave up to Scott Hairston in the 1st and Hundley in the 2nd were enough to hang him with the loss. It was Hairston's 5th home run of the season and Hundley's 2nd home run in as many at bats after his walk off blast against the Reds in the 16th inning on Saturday.

Despite a 3.62 era, Zito is just 1-4 for the punchless Giants.

CY went 6 strong only giving up only 5 hits while striking out 6. Young gave up only a single run in the 6th when Kouzmanoff and Eckstein were unable to turn a double play on a ground out by Emmanuel Burris with men on 1st and third.

A trio from the Padres bullpen shut the Giants down for 3 innings and Heath Bell stayed perfect on the season while picking up his 10th save.

Adrian Gonzalez continued his struggles on this home stand (and at Petco overall) by going 0-4 tonight. For the home stand he is just 2 for 18 with just 1 run batted in. A .111 batting average.

Just a few moments ago I saw one of the most promising statistic of the year come across the TV Screen during the replay. What was it?

It was a graphic showing the NL teams with the lowest number of extra base hits this season and the Giants headed the list with just 94 extra base hits and it rose to 108 extra base hits for the 5th worst team, the Reds.

Why was that promising? The Padres were not on the list for the first time since 2007. The Padres are tied with the Cubs at 112 extra base hits going into tonight's game.

A side note - Bruce Bochy, former Padres manager, got his 1176th loss tonight tying him with Frank Robinson for 28th all time. While Bochy has no shot at passing Connie Mack and his 3948 losses over 53 seasons, at his current pace Bochy has a good shot at passing Bucky Harris for the 2nd most losses in just 11 more seasons. Go for it Bochy!

(A trivia question for you all. What manager has the best win-loss percentage since Jackie Robinson became the 1st African American player in modern baseball in 1947?)


Now back to the Padres -

Is it time to bring out the kool aid again?

Far from it, but it is so nice to see four wins in a row after 11 losses in a row on the road.

So, for now it is nice to report that the Padres winning streak is at 4 games.

The Padres start a winning streak!

Sunday May 17, 2009

The Padres start a winning streak!

Nick Hundley crushed a walk off home run to the upper deck in left field in the bottom of the 16th inning to give the San Diego Padres 6-5 win tonight over the Cincinnati Reds.

Yes you read that right, 16th inning. The game lasted 5 hours and 14 minutes.

Giles led off the game with a home run to RF and the Padres used nearly every player on the on the team by the time this one was over 16 innings later.

22 of the Padres 25 players were used and when the game ended, the Padres had just Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Chad Gaudin available to pitch OR hit in pitchers spot in the 17th.

Starter Josh Geer went 5 2/3 innings and gave up 5 runs on 2 huge home runs. The much maligned Padres bullpen then held the Reds scoreless for 10 1/3 innings.

Luis Perdomo went 3 innings and took his first career win.

The Padres had not won two games in a row since April 18th. It was also the last time the Padres swept a series. can they do it again tomorrow?

The Padres have started a winning streak!

Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

Wee hours of the morning Saturday May 16, 2009

Padres Win!

Been a while since we have been able to say that!

This win was a team win. Everyone contributed!

Kevin Correia pitched 7 strong giving up just 5 hits, 3 runs and limited his walks to 2.
That is nearly a miracle in and of itself.

And the Padres came back from a 3-1 deficit to score runs in the bottom of the 6th and 7th to win the game over the Cincinnati Reds.

Adrian Gonzalez continues to be ON FIRE, hitting his major league leading 15th home run of the season in the bottom of the 1st inning. Don't look now, but Adrian is on pace to hit 67.5 home runs for the season. I don't think he will get there, but 40 is certainly within reach and reason for the younger Gonzalez.

Brian Giles was batting leadoff tonight and contributed a hit and a run.

Kevin Kouzmanoff came up with a clutch double in the 6th to drive in Jody Gerut who singled. Gerut also also hit a Sac Fly fly in the 7th to drive in a run.

All of the starters had at least one hit with Eckstein and Hairston also driving in runs with singles in a three run 7th.

Heath Bell came in with 2 out in the 8th and induced a pop out from Brandon Harris, then overcame a lead off double and a walk to get his 9th save of the season.

Bell is perfect in 9 save opportunities and maintained his 0.00 ERA.

So say it with me folks. It feels too good not to.

Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

Friday May 15, 2009

Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

That didn't take long.

According to Corey Brock of MLB.com on his Twitter, the San Diego Padres have designated Duaner Sanchez for assignment, giving the team 10 days to trade or place the reliever on waivers. It is expected that Sanchez and his 9.00 ERA in 12 appearances this season will easily make it through waivers. The Padres can then assign him to their minor league system.

The Padres also claimed the well travelled 29 year old infielder Josh Wilson off waivers, after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment earlier this week.

Wilson is a career minor leaguer and has hit .233/.290/.324/.614 at the major league level over 127 games and 4 seasons.

His best season was 2007 when he hit .251 while playing in 90 games, starting 72 at SS, 2B and 3B.

Wilson also pitched one inning in 2007 and 2009 and now has a 0.00 career era. Maybe he can help out in the pen when he isn't playing middle infield.

Wilson will help out in the middle infield while Luis Rodriguez and Everth Cabrera are on the DL.

Dont expect much from Wilson. He is as bad or worse with the glove than Edgar Gonzalez of Luis Rodriguez at SS and has not been a great hitter at either the minor league or major league level.

The Padres also sent down RH reliever Edwin Moreno and called up RH reliever Greg Burke and LH reliever Joe "Becky" Thatcher.

Burke has been dominating at AAA as has Thatcher.

Those of you who follow this blog know I am not enamored of Thatcher. Thatcher has shown he is one of those guys that allows way too high of a percentage of inherited runners to score, while keeping his own ERA down. He doesn't help a team to win, but his stats look good.

Lets hope Thatcher has learned something in his time at AAA This season.

Changes the Padres don't need to make.

Friday May 15, 2009

Changes the Padres don't need to make.

I keep reading alot of articles saying the Padres need to make drastic changes in their roster and to a certain extent those calls for changes are well placed. After all the Padres are in the midst of a 4-19 collapse with 11 straight losses on the road.

For all of you, including Tim Sullivan over at San Diego's rag they call a newspaper, who are stupid enough to want to replace Kevin Kouzmanoff in the starting 8 with Will Venable, keep in mind that Venable has more strike outs than hits as well this season, and that is at the AAA level.

In other words, Venable is NOT hitting any better than Kouzmanoff and you want to give him a regular starting job?

That is downright idiotic. At least we know what Kouzmanoff can do and we also know that Kouzmanoff is a slow starter who will probably end up around .270 for the season with around 20 home runs if the last two seasons are any indication.

I do believe the Padres need to make some changes, but throwing a #4 (at best) or #5 outfielder like Venable into a starting position is ludicrous.

As a FOURTH or FIFTH outfielder, Macias at least plays spectacular defense so the runs he takes away with his defense may compensate for his mediocre bat on a part time basis, but Venable is playing below average defensively in CF this season, so his defense would not.

Venable is not good defensively in CF as either Gerut or Hairston. Last year it graded out with Gerut at +5.8 UZR, Hairston +3.3 and Venable +2.4. At a +9.5 career UZR, Gerut is one of the better defensive CF in the game.

And how long will it take Headley to begin to play defense at 3B at the level Kouzmanoff is currently playing? How many games will be lost until he does. 1, 2, more? Remember, Headley has not regularly played the position since 2007 and he does not even take gound balls at the position in practice currently.

How many of you really believe, based on 44 abs against RHP this season, that Hairston should be a everyday starter? Especially given how poorly he has done of 650+ career at bats against RHP. Hairston's BA against RHP since May 1st of .242 has been much closer to his career average of .234/.294/.414/.709 and, as they always do, will continue to regress towards the mean as the season continues. ( VS RHP in 2008 - .224/.309/.399/.708)

Hairston is good against LHP. Always has been (career - .287/.337/.549/.886, 2008 - .280/.316/.580/.896) and this season he has been a monster (.381/.447/.762/1.209). So platoon Hairston at ALL of the outfield positions against LHP if you want, but don't give him ANY position as an everyday starter. We have seen that dog, and it don't hunt.

And if you trade away Peavy now, what is that saying to Gonzalez and the players you do want to sign long term about the teams commitment to winning? In my opinion it kills any chance of getting Gonzalez signed to an extension. Would you sign a contract knowing the team is not going to be any better than it is right now for several years to come?

So those are changes the Padres absolutely should not make.

So what changes do I think the Padres need to make?

#1 Fire Bud Black - It is Black's job to get these guys to relax and perform and he has failed. No, he has not been given a big league squad and there have been a lot of injuries, but this team is still better than the 4-19 record they have in their last 23 games.

#2 DFA Duaner Sanchez, and cut Luis Perdomo. Bring up Greg Burke and Even Scribner or Gabe DeHoyos to replace them and go with just 12 relievers. My last post was dedicated to Sanchez so I am not going to rehash that. Perdomo has simply not shown he has what it takes, yet. He may in a couple of years, but taking a Rule V guy that did not dominate at the lower levels is risky, and this gamble did not pay off.

#3 Get Kyle Blanks ready to play LF. The Padres are already starting to get him some playing time in LF and once he is able to adjust to AAA pitching (he has hit just .200 over his past 10 games), he should also have had a chance to start 40 or 50 games in LF and be ready to make the jump later in the season.

#4 Get Headley some time at 3B. As I mentioned above, Headley has not played the position reguarly since 2007 and is not taking ground balls at 3B now. Sit Kouzmanoff against some RHP that have been historically bad matchups for him and let Headley get a few starts at 3B. By the time Blanks is ready to be called up, Headley will have been able to play at least 5 or 6 games at 3B and have taken grounders in practive for a couple of months.

#5 Play Jody Gerut. Gerut is a rhythm hitter and needs at bats daily to hit well. Gerut and Hairston is a great platoon by the numbers, but Gerut struggles against all pitching when he isn't out there daily. Gerut is also a better fielder than Hairston and has good power. As Tampa showed last season and several clubs are showing this season, good defense that takes away runs is as important to winning as bats that add runs. This is especially true in Petco, where runs are at a premium.

#6 Start looking for new trainer and strength coach. While some of the injuries cannot be blamed wholy on them, their job is to condition the athletes on the Padres to minimize injuries, and given the fact that the Padres have been consistently among the top 5 in player days on the DL each of the past 8 seasons and are on pace to break 1100 player days on the DL this season, they are failing miserably.

The Padres are the only team to have over 880 player days on the DL in the last 10 years and they have done it 5 times including the only 2 seasons over 1000 player days on the dl since they began keeping records of this stuff. REgardless of whether the players or anyone else says they like the trainers hee, their results stink.

#7 Figure out how to turn Kouzmanoff's bat around. This guy hit everywhere he went before the Padres started tinkering with his swing. Maybe it is the Padres approach and not Kouzmanoff that is to blame here. SO Lefebvre do your job and figure it out. You can't trade him while he is hitting .229 and sending him down does no good since Headley would take a month or more to readjust to third base.

So get Kouzmanoff hitting so you CAN trade him for help at SS or for the pitching staff when Blanks is ready to come up and take over LF.

#8 Put Brian Giles back into the front of the rotation and sit him down and say, "Brian, we know you are having problems off the field. It is time to focus on doing your job and let baseball take your mind off those things. SO get out their and do what you do best, hit the damn ball."

If you want to rest him, send Hairston or Gerut or even Macias out there against a few lefties since Giles has hit just .255 off LHP over the past 3 seasons and just .111 this season.

#9 Trade for a decent everyday SS. Cabrera did well while he was here but it was 13 abs and he isn't expected back until Late June at the earliest. Luis Rodriguez is not the answer when he comes back. He is a below average defender and he is a slightly above replacement level hitter. He could be a good platoon player, but playing everyday seems to be beyond his abilities.

So who can the Padres trade for? They are not going to get a top level prospect like Alcides Escobar or Yunel Esobar or even Jason Donald, but maybe a player like Argenis Diaz or Reid Brignac who is blocked by a ML player and a top prospect will be available for a package of prospects.

#10 All Padres fans need to remember 4 words -

REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN!

What does that mean? It means that players will regress towards their career averages as the season progresses unless there is some underlying problem like an injury. So put them out there and let them play their way out of their slumps. Eventually they will start hitting enough ABOVE their career averages to end up near their career averages when the season is over. In other words there will be a hot streak to average out a slump at some point if you just shut up and let them play.

I have had my say. Now What do you think?

Why is Duaner Sanchez Still a Padre?

Thursday May 14, 2009

Why is Duaner Sanchez still a San Diego Padre?

Sanchez continued his complete collapse as a pitcher with a 1.2 inning appearance in which he allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs as well as allowing an inherited runner to score.

This outing raised his ERA to 9.00 on the season.

He has just three scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances.

So why is he still a Padre?

Who will the Padres draft? Part Deux

Thursday May 14, 2009

Who Will the San Diego Padres Draft in the June MLB Amateur Draft?

The draft is approaching and the Padres have their highest draft pick since 2004.

At the number 3 overall pick, impact type players are certain to be available when the Padres turn comes up.

For 2009 there is a glaring dearth of positional players that are expected to go high in the draft, but as many as 3 of them may go in the top 10 overall picks.

In the first part of this article I profiled 4 players that the Padres have either been rumored to be interested in or whom the Padres are currently scouting heavily.

In this section I will profile 6 players I think are high tools type players or players that the Padres should be scouting heavily.

So who will the Padres pick and why?

LHP Tyler Matzek of Capistrano Valley HS (CA)
This 6'3" 190 lb lefty is among the most polished high school pitchers I have seen in many years. His delivery is absolutely effortless and his mechanics are spot on.

While his fastball sits at 91-93, he can crank it up to 95 when needed and he has a two Plus secondary pitches in an 1-7 curve that is nasty and a slider that breaks late. He also mixes in an improving change up that could be a 4th plus pitch.

He may not have #1 upside, but I can see him being a very good #2 in the major leagues for years to come.

He may go as high as number two overall and the Padres could gain something they have not had in years, a dominating lefty starter.

I can see him going to the Padres with the number 3 pick.


OF Donovan Tate of Cartersville HS (GA) (Boras)

The 6'3" 210 lb Tate may be the best overall athlete expected to be drafted in the first round. He is already committed to North Carolina as a Quarterback and wants to play baseball for the Tar Heels as well.

Tate has blazing speed, his 6.4 in the 60-yard is .3 faster than any current player in the Padres system, and he throws a 92-93 mph fast ball.

But it is as a hitter and an outfielder that most teams are looking at Tate. Tate is projected to have 80 speed, 70 arm and 60+ defense, while hitting with 20+ home run power as a professional.

The drawbacks are that Tate is very raw as a hitter and is lacking in patience at the plate. Combine that with Boras as an agent/adviser and the fact that he has already committed to the University of North Carolina in football and that his father, Lars Tate, was a former NFL player and you have a potential signability problem.

Tate may be the first high school player taken in the June Draft and he may fall out of the top 10 rounds depending on how hard teams feel it may be to sign him.


RHP Aaron Crow - 1st round pick of the Washington Nationals (#9 overall) in 2008 out of the University of Missouri and current independent league Forth Worth Cats pitcher. (Boras)

Crow is a 6'2" 205 lb power pitcher who is a fierce competitor. His fastball touches 96 mph and he normally sits 93-94 with with good command to both sides of the plate. He also throws a hard biting slider and a change up that shows real promise.

He was drafted with the 9th overall pick by the "Natinals" in 2008, but they failed to come to terms and Crow went on to pitch for the Cats.

A potential drawback is a hitch in his pitching mechanics that has many scouts leary of future injuries. It is the same type of mechanical flaw that most feel led to Mark Prior's devastating shoulder injuries.

Where Crow goes in the June draft will depend heavily on how he pitches for the independent league Ft. Worth Cats who started their season May 4th. Crow threw 4 scoreless innings in his first start before giving way to the bullpen.


RHP Zack Wheeler of East Paulding HS (GA)
The 6′4, 180 Wheeler is long and lanky and undoubtedly will grow into his body over time. His fastball sits at 90-93 with good late movement and can hit 96. Many scouts believe that his velocity will increase as a professional as he adds some bulk.

Wheeler's secondary pitches include a + hard slurve at 74-78 and change up that still needs work. He has a consistent delivery and good command of his fastball and slurve.

Wheeler projects as a #1-#2 type pitcher and also to go in the top 10 on draft day and may go as high as #3, but is likely going to be drafted after the Padres pick at #3.


LHP Mike Leake of Arizona State University
At 6'0" 180 lbs, Leake is not an imposing figure on the mound, but he gets outstanding results.
This season he has gone 12-1 in 13 appearances with a 1.47 era. In 97.2 IP he has given up just 59 hits while striking out 104 vs just 18 walks.

His 2 seam fastball sits 88-92 with lots of late movement. He has good command over all of his pitches. His change up and curve have a sharp break and has went to a slider more this season. None of his pitches are ++, but he throws strikes and keeps batters off kilter by changing speeds and location. His delivery is smooth and compact and he works very quickly.

Of all the people on this list, Leake may have the quickest path to the major leagues, but his ceiling is lower than many on here. In most books he projects as a #2 or most likely a #3 starter.

Leake will probably be on the board long past the Padres pick at #3, but he will definitely be drafted in the top to middle of the 1st round.


LHP Matthew Purke of Klein HS (Tx)
At the beginning of the season Matthew Purke topped many lists of high school pitchers. A good but not outstanding prep season has seen him fall from a consensus top 5 pick to somewhere in the top-mid 1st round.

The 6'3" 185 lb Purke throws from a 3.4 arm slot which gives his fastball good sink. His fastball sits at 89-92 and regularly touches 94. He has a plus curve, but his slider and change up need work. What worries many scouts most is his long delivery and "inverted w" mechanics. This means his hands break low and this puts stress on his shoulder as his hand catches up with his stride.

Purke will probably still go in the top 10-12 in the 1st round, but I do not believe he will go at #3 to the Padres.


A few other names have been thrown around by many of the MLB draft mavens, but the Padres are not known to have heavily scouted them so I would place them on a list of interesting players, but not likely to be drafted by the Padres at #3.

They include:
RHP Tanner Scheppers of the Independent League St. Paul Saints
RHP Shelby Miller of Brownwood HS (Tex.)
RHP Jacob Turner of Westminster Christian Academy (Mo.)


Now the big question.

Who do I feel the Padres SHOULD take in the draft?

If he is available I think the best pick on the board is Dustin Ackley. He is a true 5 tool player.


Who do I think the Padres WILL take?

If he is still on the boad I believe the Padres will take Ackley. He is simply the best player on the board other than Strasburg. If he is not available I believe the Padres will either take Alex White of North Carolina or Aaron Crow of the Ft Worth Cats.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?