Complete Game Shutout for Correia, Padres win 4-0

Friday September 25, 2009

Kevin Correia threw a complete game shutout and the San Diego Padres defeated the last place Arizona Diamondbacks 4-0 tonight at Chase Field.

Correia allowed just 6 hits and 1 walk while striking out 7 on 109 pitches for his first career shutout and the first for a Padres pitcher since 2006. It was an awesome performance by a guy I have pegged as a mediocre pitcher on occasion.

Correia has been outstanding the last 2 months going 5-2 with a 2.54 ERA in his last 11 starts and has lowered his era from 4.75 at the end of July to 3.89 after tonight's game. In fact he has not given up a run since the 2nd inning of a Padres loss to these same Diamondbacks on September 14th, a stretch of 20 innings.

Folks I love being wrong about things like that.

Padres are now 15-7 in September.

Should Padres trade Kevin Kouzmanoff to make room for Chase Headley?

Is Headley Capable of Playing Third Full time?

Saturday September 19, 2009

There has been quite a bit of debate on the message boards and amongst fans and media about whether the Padres should keep both Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley.

Headley is a defensive liability in LF and many have argued that because he is younger, he should be moved to third base and Kouzmanoff traded.

The rationale is that because Headley was once an average fielder at third base, that he can adequately replace Kouzmanoff's defense at third base and Kouzmanoff's offense.

Kouzmanoff has played nearly flawless defense this season, with just 3 errors and a .990 Fielding percentage. Both would rank as MLB records for the position if the season ended today.

Headley committed his 5th error at the position today in his 16th start of the season. Since Kouzmanoff went down with an injury on September 8th, Headley has committed 2 errors in 9 games.

5 Errors in 16 starts is a 50 error pace for a season and simply unacceptable. 2 errors in 9 starts is a better rate, a 36 error per season pace, but it is still not good. If Headley were somehow able to cut that in half by playing daily, it is still 18 errors per season. Many too many for a player with Headley's limited range.

In fact, cutting his error rate of the past 9 games in half would still leave Headley as nearly the worst full time 3B in the league defensively over a season.

Headley is nearly three years younger than Kouzmanoff and has 1 1/2 less seasons at the major league level, so in fairness that does have to be taken into account.

So that leads to the question, will Headley improve enough over the next 1 1/2 seasons to overcome the difference in defense? Will Headley's home run totals nearly double over the next year and a half? Can he drive in 50% more runs?

Headley demonstrated better power numbers in his first season than in 2009. The sub .400 slugging percentage and lack of home run power (he is hitting just 1 hr every 42 abs) does not bode well for a player at a Corner Infield (or Outfield) position that is expected to be a run producer.

Headley is still only 25 and may develop more power, but I think over the past two months we have been seeing pretty much the best we can expect from him in the future.

He has hit .296/.367/.400 with 11 doubles and 2 home runs in 159 at bats.

Is that enough?

Don't Look Now

Wednesday September 9, 2009

Don't look now, but the Padres could very well finish the 2009 season with a better record than the Mets.

As it stands tonight the surging Padres have a 63-78 record (.447) and the slumping Mets have a 62-77 record (.446).

While the Padres went 15-14 in August and have won 6 of their last 8 games, the Mets went 12-17 in August (1-3 against the Padres) and have lost 5 of their last 8 games.

Ouch. Do you think Omar Minaya should keep his job if that happens? After all the Mets were widely picked to win the NL East over the World Champion Phillies before the season started.

Yes, the Mets have been struck by a Padre-like run of injuries this season, but with a payroll north of $130 million, is there any excuse for having a worse record than the Padres and their $36.7 million payroll?

Kouzmanoff on pace for record season

Kouzmanoff on pace for record season

Wednesday September 2, 2009

San Diego Padres third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is currently on pace for an NL record for fielding percentage at his position.

His .989 fielding percentage leads all of baseball in 2009. Vinny Castilla owns the current mark for fielding percentage by a third baseman at .984 set in 2004.

Kouzmanoff also has just 3 errors in 283 chances going into last night's game.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, no third baseman has had fewer than 6 errors in a season in which they had 300 total chances.

With 27 games left on the schedule, Kouzmanoff will certainly get to 300 total chances.

We could be watching history Padres fans.

Mat Latos starting to show signs of wearing down

Wednesday August 19, 2009

Promising San Diego Padres prospect Mat Latos is showing signs of tiring after throwing 109 2/3 innings this season over 3 levels of baseball from A ball to the majors.

Tonight he gave up 5 runs on 7 hits and 4 walks through 3 2/3 innings in the Padres 7-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs at Petco Park. He consistently left his pitches up in the zone and even though he was consistently hitting 96-97 mph on the gun, he got pounded in the 3rd and 4th innings.

With the Padres publicly saying they don't want him to go any more than double his 56 innings pitched in 2008, this was probably the last we will see of Latos starting for the Padres in 2009.

We may see a couple of outings from him coming out of the bullpen, but I doubt the Padres are willing to take a chance on him injuring himself just to extend his stay in San Diego in what is pretty much already a lost season for the team.

I would presume that after what we saw in his first 4 starts, Latos WILL be back in a Padres uniform to start the 2010 season.

Sean Gallagher is about ready to join the team and Carrillo redeemed himself in last nights start after a shaky 1st start, so Latos does not need to pitch just to fill a slot in the rotation.

Poreda may also be called up to fill his spot in the rotation.

Another Padre Pitcher Goes on the DL

Monday June 8, 2009

Well here we go again. Another Padres pitcher headed to the DL.

Luis Perdomo was placed on the DL today with a strained knee. Since he is a rule V draftee, I am not sure if we will se him in San Diego again before the rosters are expanded in September.

This is already the 6th pitcher to see time on the DL. OUCH!

The good news is that reliever Mike Adams returned from his long stint on the DL after shoulder surgery in the off season. Adams was extremely good for the Padres last season, but don't expect him to come in and be as good immediately after surgery and a long stay on the DL. Gregerson and Mujiica will probably continue in their late inning roles.

The Padres sent down SS Chris Burke and called up Wade LeBlanc and Edwin Moreno to bring the pitching staff to 13 in the wake of the 18 inning game yesterday.

That leaves the Padres with just the .103 hitting Josh Wilson at SS until Luis Rodriguez returns frm the DL at the end of the week. Wilson has no options left and would ahve had to pass through waivers to be sent down. With so little depth at the position in the organization, the Padres sent down Burke.

He even sounds like his daddy.

Saturday June 6, 2009

After being on base 5 times in 5 at bats tonight (a single, a double and 3 bb), the post game interview let us hear that not only has Jr hit like his HOF daddy, he even sounds like him.

Oh yeah, and the Padres won the game over the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-4.

After a shaky start in the first when he allowed 2 runs on 2 hits, a passed ball and a hbp, Kevin Correia settled down and shut down the D'backs for the next 5 innings to get his 2nd win of the season. In all he allowed 2 runs on 5 hits, 1 walk and a hbp in 6 IP.

Chase Headley started his 1st game at 3B this season, but gave way to Kevin Kouzmanoff in the 7th inning after being hit by a pitch for the 2nd time in the game by D'backs pitchers.

After not scoring a run in the first 14 innings of the series, the Padres exploded for 6 runs in the 6th inning.

Will Venable started it out with a double to right, Blanco moved him to 3rd with a sac fly and Chris Burke drove him home with a single. Edgar Gonzalez flied out for the 2nd out. Then it got fun. Gwynn Jr. walked and Eckstein drive in Burke. Adrian Gonzalez was walked to load the bases. Then Headley took a pitch in the leg from Dan Schlereth to drive a run. Giles drives in two with a single and then the guy who started it all off in the 6th, drove in the 6th run of the inning with a single to left.

NICE Inning!

After a perfect inning by Luke Gregerson and Edward Mujiica gave up a solo shot to Upton in the 8th inning, Heath Bell came in for the 9th and got his 16th save after allowing a single run on a walk, a wild pitch, a sac, and ground out.

The Padres improve to 26-29 on the season.

Adrian Gonzalez has now been walked 15 times in the past 8 games. With no one to protect him in the lineup, Adrian is being pitched around by other teams rather than give him a chance to beat them.

Another one bites the dust.

Wednesday June4, 2009

Another one bites the dust.

With Scott Hairston's bicep injury, yet another Padre went on the DL today. Will Venable was called up to take his place in the lineup due to a contusion on the left hand of Drew Macias.

That makes it seven players on the DL currently and nine players who have spent time there so far this season.

Last time I checked the Padres were on pace for 1100 player days on the DL in 2009 or just a few under their MLB record of 1200+ player days on the DL last season.

The record amount of injuries that plagued the Padres in 2009 is what doomed their season. Could they be on the way to another injury and loss filled season?

I sure hope not. It is hard watching your AAA players in a Padres uniform every day.

The good news is that Everth Cabrera has started his minor league rehab assignment and has to join the Padres by June 23rd and Mike Adams is also on a rehab assignment and could join the Padres as soon as Friday.

Once Again a Lefty Stifles the Padres Bats

Wednesday June 4, 2009

The Padres cannot hit left handed pitching.

Its real simple folks. When it comes to hitting lefties, the Padres stink.

It does not matter if they are good lefties or bad lefties, if they are pitching against the Padres they may as well be Randy Johnson or CY Young.

And the Padres showed just how inept they are against lefties again tonight by mustering only 4 hits against a mediocre lefty, JA Happ. If he threw 100 mph or had several devastating pitches I could understand it, but Happ pitches more like Wade Leblanc than Randy Johnson.

At least Bastardo threw mid 90's.

When a guy like Happ is dominating you with an 88-89 mph fastball and an 82 mph cutter you should be ashamed of yourselves.

Oh yeah, the Padres lost 5 - 1 and Chris Young was touched up for 3 runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 6 innings. Burke gave up 2 runs in the 7th and the Padres are now 25-28 and 11 games out after the Dodgers won in Arizona.

I believe this is the first time the Padres have been swept at home this year, but if they do not get healthy and start hitting left handed pitching it won't be the last.

I am so fed up with it all tonight that I can't think of anything else to say.

What do you think?

Padres end 3-3 road trip with a 5-2 win over the Rockies

Sunday May 31, 2009

The San Diego Padres defeated the Colorado Rockies 5-2 today at Coors Field in Denver to improve their record on the season to .500 at 25-25. The Padres 3-3 record on this road trip was a big improvement over their 5-16 road record going into it.

The game was highlighted by Adrian Gonzalez's league leading 20th home run and closer Heath Bell's league leading 15th save.

When was the last time Padres fans could talk about having two league leaders in a positive category on the roster?

Gonzalez crushed a 3 run shot to left field in the 3rd inning that staked Padres starter Chad Gaudin to a 3 run lead. Gonzalez is now the Padres all time leader in home runs through the end of May and he did it in just 179 at bats. Greg Vaughan had been the previous leader with 17 home runs through the end of May in his Padres record 50 home run season in 1998.

Gaudin went 6 innings, giving up 7 hits and 2 runs (1 earned), striking out 9 including 6 of the 1st 8 batters he faced while walking zero. Gaudin had been plagued by wildness recently, walking 16 in 15 2/3 ip over his last 3 starts prior to today, so it was nice to see him attacking hitters and throwing strikes.

One day after blowing his first save of the season, Bell came in and pitched a perfect 9th for his 15th save of the season.

As much as I howled about the trade that sent Jody Gerut to the Brewers for Tony Gwynn Jr., I must admit to being pleasantly surprised by the offensive production by Jr. He is 10/25 - .320 with 8 runs scored in 9 games. His defense has been less than stellar, but his offense has been outstanding.

The Padres now return to San Diego for a 6 game home stand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks starting tomorrow. The Padres split a series 2-1 with the Phillies at Citizens Bank Ballpark in Philadelphia in April as part of a 9-3 start.

Kevin Correia will square up against the Phillies' Joe Blanton in the series opener tomorrow, followed by gimping Padres starter Jake Peavy against rookie Antonio Bastardo in his first major league start on Tuesday.

Can the Padres continue their .739 win percentage at home against the defending World Series champion Phillies and the division rival Diamondbacks?

Should the Padres trade Chris Young?

Saturday May 30, 2009

I know alot of the focus has been on the Padres dumping salary by trading away Jake Peavy, but I think the Padres may be able to get more value in trading Chris Young.

Young is pitching well and because of his relatively low salary requirements over the next 2 seasons ($4.5 million in 2009, $6.25 million in 2010 and a club option at $8.5 million in 2011) and being locked up for 2 seasons without a no trade clause, Young may actually bring back more value in trade than he is giving the Padres.

Lets face it, while a good pitcher, Young is not a stopper like Peavy. If you have one game you absolutely must win you are not going to run Chris Young out there.

But Young's numbers are very good and he holds high value.

The Phillies have a big need for pitching with Myers out for the season and they have some great young arms they could send back in return.

The White Sox obviously need pitching and would probably send the same package minus Lance Broadway back in trade for Young. The big question is how would he do in that bandbox?

The Marlins are looking for pitching help and could be tempted by Young's low salary in 2010 and 2011, although it is a bit more than they normally pay. Straight up for Uggla?

The Mets could use another starter and Young would be a perfect fit in that huge park. Would they be willing to part with Fernando Martinez and a couple of low level pitching prospects?

Seattle could use another starter and they are rumored to be shopping Bedard which would great a big hole in their lineup. The Padres were very interested in Garrett Olson prior to the season. Could a trade for Olson and a couple of prospects be in the works for Young?

Obviously there is a need on several teams and a couple that may even be good fits for a flyball pitcher.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Padres drop 2nd straight game to hapless Rockies

Saturday May 30, 2009

Well, now we know, Heath Bell is human. He blew his first save and the San Diego Padres lost 8-7 tonight to the Colorado Rockies.

But the game really hinged on errors. Both those called errors and those not called errors.
In the 3rd inning Gwynn Jr twice kicked a ball hit to the gap by Clint Barmes and it was called a triple. 2 batters later Garrett Atkins hit a sacrifice fly to deep center and Barmes scored.

Another error by Gwynn Jr. led to an unearned run. This was a game where the Padres really missed the defense of Jody Gerut.

And there you have the difference in the game.

Bell or another of the Padres relievers may have given up 4 runs in the 9th, but somehow I doubt that given how well they have pitched as a unit for the past 2 weeks.

On a day when the Dodgers also lost, I was hoping to see the Padres would win one and pick up ground in the NL West. It wasn't to be.

Padres shut out in Coors Field

Saturday May 30, 2009

A shutout in Coors? yup. The San Diego Padres lost 3-0 to the Colorado Rockies last night in Denver.

From what I have been reading there have been less than 10 shutouts in Coors field history and the Padres have been part of 4 of them.

Chris Young pitched well, allowing only 2 hits and 1 earned run in 6 ip, but both staffs got squeezed a bit by home plate umpire Jerry Layne and Young walked 6.

If Kouzmanoff does not allow a ball to slip under his glove in the 6th, this could have been a 1-0 game.

1-0 In COORS FIELD!

Adrian Gonzalez was pitched around in this game walking 3 times and will continue to be pitched around until a Padres hitter can prove he can consistently hit in the #5 slot.

Right now Padres #5 batters are hitting a MLB worst .231/.286/.319/.604. They badly need someone to step up and make teams pay when they put Adrian Gonzalez on base.

Scott Hairston is howing he is not the answer and has begun his annual swoon vs RHP. In two weeks he has dropped from .297 to .268 against right handed pitching while still hitting .389 against LHP.

Soon the Padres will be forced to platoon him in most situations and Gwynn is no Gerut against RHP.

Still, the Padres should be able to take 2 of 3 against the slumping Rockies. I guess it will depend on which Josh Geer shows up today.

Padres win 8-5 over the Diamondbacks

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Why does Bud Black seem to believe that starters have to go 6?

Time after time he leaves pitchers in after they have shown they are done.

Correia got hit because he was tired and elevating pitches in the 5th last night, so what does Black do? Bring him back to give up 4 more runs in the 6th.

That loss is squarely on the manager's shoulders. He should know the signs to look for in a tired pitcher, but he doesn't seem to have that ability.

Tonight Peavy struggles through the 6th, elevating his pitches and missing his spots. So what does Black do? He brings him back in the 7th so he can give up another run before giving way to Gregerson. Why did he come out at all?

Luckily, the Diamondbacks bullpen seems intent on giving up as many runs as they possibly can and immediately gave up 3 runs on 4 walks, 2 errors and 2 singles in the 8th inning tonight.

Even Greg Burke giving up a run in the 9th wasn't enough for the Diamondbacks, as the Padres beat them 8-5. It was just the 2nd run the Padres bullpen has given up since Duaner Sanchez gave up 4 runs on May 14th. Peavy went 6 1/3 innings giving up 8 hits and 4 runs while striking out 5 for his 5th win and Heath Bell pitched to one batter in the 9th for his 13th save.

Adrian Gonzalez hit his league leading 18th home run and the Padres 1 through 4 hitters went 8 for 17 and scored all 8 Padres runs.

The Padres are now 24-23 while the Diamondbacks fall to 20-27.

Why Padres CAN win the West

Wednesday May 27, 2009

Why the San Diego Padres CAN win the NL West in 2009.

I keep hearing people saying that the Dodgers have the NL West won and no one else has a chance of winning the division.

I want to present one counter argument to that misplaced thought.

(Note: I starting writing this article several days ago and am just getting around to posting it so, even though I have adjusted several of them some of the stats may be off just a bit, but the general idea is still as sound today as it was Tuesday.)

Before I give you any more commentary let me post a few stats.
Can you figure out why these stats show the Padres CAN still win the NL West?

Padres
Brian Giles - .175
Kevin Kouzmanoff - .231
David Eckstein - .225
Edgar Gonzalez - .190
Chase Headley - .234
Chris Young - 4.76

Dodgers
Juan Pierre - .395
Casey Blake - .309
Orlando Hudson - .349
Brad Ausmus - .355
Randy Wolf - 3.02
Jonathan Broxton - 1.17

So what do all these players and their stats have in common?

They are all far off their career norms.

One of the most accurate predictors of human performance is called "Regression (or progression) Towards the Mean".

What that means is athletes tend to move from where they are currently towards their career averages during the course of a season, whether that is regressing or progressing.

In real simple terms, if a player has hit .250 for the first 7 years of his career and is currently hitting .350, he will almost certainly slump from .350 towards .250 as the season goes on.

There are occasional career years or break out years in which a player hits substantially more than his career averages, but in subsequent years they almost always regress towards the career average.

So the players listed above are far off their career norms, and only one, Kouzmanoff is in the age group most likely to have a break out year, so all should regress or progress towards their career averages.

All but one of the batters are more than 40 points off their career averages coming into 2009.

So why does this mean the Padres CAN contend in the NL West?

Brian Giles is hitting more than 120 points below his career average. Considering his age, if he only regresses to f his relatively low combined batting average for the last 3 years, he still will improve by 100 points.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is hitting 35 points below his career average of .266 coming into this season. Kouzmanoff has hit an average of 20 home runs per season and currently he has 4. He has been a player that hit better later in the season his first two seasons, so we should be able to expect an improvement as this season goes along.

David Eckstein has been a very consistent hitter. Not a high average guy for sure, but most years in the .270-.300 range with a career average of .285 coming into the season. Right now he is 60 points below his career averages and chances are he will improve as the season progresses.

Edgar Gonzalez and Chase Headley do not have full seasons at the major league level under their belts so it is more difficult to project improvement this season, but after looking at their minor league stats and last years results it can pretty safely be said that they are better hitters than what we have seen so far.

Throw in injuries to Luis Rodriguez and promising shortstop Everth Cabrera and the Padres hitting should see marked improvement as the season goes on.

Only Scott Hairston is hitting far above his career averages for the Padres.

Chris Young is a full ERA point over his career averages. He is healthy, but has not been consistent so far this season. One game pitching a gem and the next getting blown out. He should also improve.

Heath Bell is below his career average, but as a closer he can see a small increase and still close games effectively.

A large percentage of the Padres position players are due to see an increase in batting average and the number two starter is due to see a full point come off his ERA as the season progresses.

In other words, chances are the Padres will get better as the season goes on.


Now for the Dodgers.

Juan Pierre is hitting more than 90 points above his career norms.

Casey Blake is hitting 20 points higher than his career high and 50 points above his career average.

Orlando Hudson is hitting 45 points higher than his career high and 65 points better than his career average.

Brad Ausmus is playing in rarefied air at over 100 points higher than his career average.

Randy Wolf is more than a full point lower than what his career ERA of 4.26.

Jeff Weaver is more than a full point below his career ERA of 4.72.

Jonathan Broxton is more than 1.8 points lower than his career ERA of 2.98.

These key Dodgers players are due for a fall in batting average and a rise in ERA.

Add to that the continuing struggles of Rafael Furcal. After his injury and subsequent back surgery I posted that no regular in baseball had ever returned from the surgery Furcal had done and completed a full season of baseball and that ALL who have had the surgery had significant drops in production when they did come back.

Furcal is 48 points below his career batting average of .286 and is regressing. He may still improve, but no other player who has had the same back surgery has ever completed a full season or hit his career average ever again in their careers.

Only one Dodger starter is more than 40 points below his career averages, Andre Ethier at .250.

In other words, chances are the Dodgers will get worse as the season goes on.

Will the Dodgers get 8.5 games worse?

Or even meet the Padres half way, with the Padres getting 4.5 games better to the Dodgers getting 4.5 games worse?

That is a question for the baseball Gods.

My point was to show that there is a plausible argument for why the Padres CAN catch the Dodgers and win the NL West.

I have had my say. Now what do you think?

Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

Wee hours of the morning Saturday May 16, 2009

Padres Win!

Been a while since we have been able to say that!

This win was a team win. Everyone contributed!

Kevin Correia pitched 7 strong giving up just 5 hits, 3 runs and limited his walks to 2.
That is nearly a miracle in and of itself.

And the Padres came back from a 3-1 deficit to score runs in the bottom of the 6th and 7th to win the game over the Cincinnati Reds.

Adrian Gonzalez continues to be ON FIRE, hitting his major league leading 15th home run of the season in the bottom of the 1st inning. Don't look now, but Adrian is on pace to hit 67.5 home runs for the season. I don't think he will get there, but 40 is certainly within reach and reason for the younger Gonzalez.

Brian Giles was batting leadoff tonight and contributed a hit and a run.

Kevin Kouzmanoff came up with a clutch double in the 6th to drive in Jody Gerut who singled. Gerut also also hit a Sac Fly fly in the 7th to drive in a run.

All of the starters had at least one hit with Eckstein and Hairston also driving in runs with singles in a three run 7th.

Heath Bell came in with 2 out in the 8th and induced a pop out from Brandon Harris, then overcame a lead off double and a walk to get his 9th save of the season.

Bell is perfect in 9 save opportunities and maintained his 0.00 ERA.

So say it with me folks. It feels too good not to.

Padres Win! Padres Win! Padres Win!

Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

Friday May 15, 2009

Padres DFA Duaner Sanchez and Claim INF Josh Wilson

That didn't take long.

According to Corey Brock of MLB.com on his Twitter, the San Diego Padres have designated Duaner Sanchez for assignment, giving the team 10 days to trade or place the reliever on waivers. It is expected that Sanchez and his 9.00 ERA in 12 appearances this season will easily make it through waivers. The Padres can then assign him to their minor league system.

The Padres also claimed the well travelled 29 year old infielder Josh Wilson off waivers, after the Diamondbacks designated him for assignment earlier this week.

Wilson is a career minor leaguer and has hit .233/.290/.324/.614 at the major league level over 127 games and 4 seasons.

His best season was 2007 when he hit .251 while playing in 90 games, starting 72 at SS, 2B and 3B.

Wilson also pitched one inning in 2007 and 2009 and now has a 0.00 career era. Maybe he can help out in the pen when he isn't playing middle infield.

Wilson will help out in the middle infield while Luis Rodriguez and Everth Cabrera are on the DL.

Dont expect much from Wilson. He is as bad or worse with the glove than Edgar Gonzalez of Luis Rodriguez at SS and has not been a great hitter at either the minor league or major league level.

The Padres also sent down RH reliever Edwin Moreno and called up RH reliever Greg Burke and LH reliever Joe "Becky" Thatcher.

Burke has been dominating at AAA as has Thatcher.

Those of you who follow this blog know I am not enamored of Thatcher. Thatcher has shown he is one of those guys that allows way too high of a percentage of inherited runners to score, while keeping his own ERA down. He doesn't help a team to win, but his stats look good.

Lets hope Thatcher has learned something in his time at AAA This season.

Changes the Padres don't need to make.

Friday May 15, 2009

Changes the Padres don't need to make.

I keep reading alot of articles saying the Padres need to make drastic changes in their roster and to a certain extent those calls for changes are well placed. After all the Padres are in the midst of a 4-19 collapse with 11 straight losses on the road.

For all of you, including Tim Sullivan over at San Diego's rag they call a newspaper, who are stupid enough to want to replace Kevin Kouzmanoff in the starting 8 with Will Venable, keep in mind that Venable has more strike outs than hits as well this season, and that is at the AAA level.

In other words, Venable is NOT hitting any better than Kouzmanoff and you want to give him a regular starting job?

That is downright idiotic. At least we know what Kouzmanoff can do and we also know that Kouzmanoff is a slow starter who will probably end up around .270 for the season with around 20 home runs if the last two seasons are any indication.

I do believe the Padres need to make some changes, but throwing a #4 (at best) or #5 outfielder like Venable into a starting position is ludicrous.

As a FOURTH or FIFTH outfielder, Macias at least plays spectacular defense so the runs he takes away with his defense may compensate for his mediocre bat on a part time basis, but Venable is playing below average defensively in CF this season, so his defense would not.

Venable is not good defensively in CF as either Gerut or Hairston. Last year it graded out with Gerut at +5.8 UZR, Hairston +3.3 and Venable +2.4. At a +9.5 career UZR, Gerut is one of the better defensive CF in the game.

And how long will it take Headley to begin to play defense at 3B at the level Kouzmanoff is currently playing? How many games will be lost until he does. 1, 2, more? Remember, Headley has not regularly played the position since 2007 and he does not even take gound balls at the position in practice currently.

How many of you really believe, based on 44 abs against RHP this season, that Hairston should be a everyday starter? Especially given how poorly he has done of 650+ career at bats against RHP. Hairston's BA against RHP since May 1st of .242 has been much closer to his career average of .234/.294/.414/.709 and, as they always do, will continue to regress towards the mean as the season continues. ( VS RHP in 2008 - .224/.309/.399/.708)

Hairston is good against LHP. Always has been (career - .287/.337/.549/.886, 2008 - .280/.316/.580/.896) and this season he has been a monster (.381/.447/.762/1.209). So platoon Hairston at ALL of the outfield positions against LHP if you want, but don't give him ANY position as an everyday starter. We have seen that dog, and it don't hunt.

And if you trade away Peavy now, what is that saying to Gonzalez and the players you do want to sign long term about the teams commitment to winning? In my opinion it kills any chance of getting Gonzalez signed to an extension. Would you sign a contract knowing the team is not going to be any better than it is right now for several years to come?

So those are changes the Padres absolutely should not make.

So what changes do I think the Padres need to make?

#1 Fire Bud Black - It is Black's job to get these guys to relax and perform and he has failed. No, he has not been given a big league squad and there have been a lot of injuries, but this team is still better than the 4-19 record they have in their last 23 games.

#2 DFA Duaner Sanchez, and cut Luis Perdomo. Bring up Greg Burke and Even Scribner or Gabe DeHoyos to replace them and go with just 12 relievers. My last post was dedicated to Sanchez so I am not going to rehash that. Perdomo has simply not shown he has what it takes, yet. He may in a couple of years, but taking a Rule V guy that did not dominate at the lower levels is risky, and this gamble did not pay off.

#3 Get Kyle Blanks ready to play LF. The Padres are already starting to get him some playing time in LF and once he is able to adjust to AAA pitching (he has hit just .200 over his past 10 games), he should also have had a chance to start 40 or 50 games in LF and be ready to make the jump later in the season.

#4 Get Headley some time at 3B. As I mentioned above, Headley has not played the position reguarly since 2007 and is not taking ground balls at 3B now. Sit Kouzmanoff against some RHP that have been historically bad matchups for him and let Headley get a few starts at 3B. By the time Blanks is ready to be called up, Headley will have been able to play at least 5 or 6 games at 3B and have taken grounders in practive for a couple of months.

#5 Play Jody Gerut. Gerut is a rhythm hitter and needs at bats daily to hit well. Gerut and Hairston is a great platoon by the numbers, but Gerut struggles against all pitching when he isn't out there daily. Gerut is also a better fielder than Hairston and has good power. As Tampa showed last season and several clubs are showing this season, good defense that takes away runs is as important to winning as bats that add runs. This is especially true in Petco, where runs are at a premium.

#6 Start looking for new trainer and strength coach. While some of the injuries cannot be blamed wholy on them, their job is to condition the athletes on the Padres to minimize injuries, and given the fact that the Padres have been consistently among the top 5 in player days on the DL each of the past 8 seasons and are on pace to break 1100 player days on the DL this season, they are failing miserably.

The Padres are the only team to have over 880 player days on the DL in the last 10 years and they have done it 5 times including the only 2 seasons over 1000 player days on the dl since they began keeping records of this stuff. REgardless of whether the players or anyone else says they like the trainers hee, their results stink.

#7 Figure out how to turn Kouzmanoff's bat around. This guy hit everywhere he went before the Padres started tinkering with his swing. Maybe it is the Padres approach and not Kouzmanoff that is to blame here. SO Lefebvre do your job and figure it out. You can't trade him while he is hitting .229 and sending him down does no good since Headley would take a month or more to readjust to third base.

So get Kouzmanoff hitting so you CAN trade him for help at SS or for the pitching staff when Blanks is ready to come up and take over LF.

#8 Put Brian Giles back into the front of the rotation and sit him down and say, "Brian, we know you are having problems off the field. It is time to focus on doing your job and let baseball take your mind off those things. SO get out their and do what you do best, hit the damn ball."

If you want to rest him, send Hairston or Gerut or even Macias out there against a few lefties since Giles has hit just .255 off LHP over the past 3 seasons and just .111 this season.

#9 Trade for a decent everyday SS. Cabrera did well while he was here but it was 13 abs and he isn't expected back until Late June at the earliest. Luis Rodriguez is not the answer when he comes back. He is a below average defender and he is a slightly above replacement level hitter. He could be a good platoon player, but playing everyday seems to be beyond his abilities.

So who can the Padres trade for? They are not going to get a top level prospect like Alcides Escobar or Yunel Esobar or even Jason Donald, but maybe a player like Argenis Diaz or Reid Brignac who is blocked by a ML player and a top prospect will be available for a package of prospects.

#10 All Padres fans need to remember 4 words -

REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MEAN!

What does that mean? It means that players will regress towards their career averages as the season progresses unless there is some underlying problem like an injury. So put them out there and let them play their way out of their slumps. Eventually they will start hitting enough ABOVE their career averages to end up near their career averages when the season is over. In other words there will be a hot streak to average out a slump at some point if you just shut up and let them play.

I have had my say. Now What do you think?

Why is Duaner Sanchez Still a Padre?

Thursday May 14, 2009

Why is Duaner Sanchez still a San Diego Padre?

Sanchez continued his complete collapse as a pitcher with a 1.2 inning appearance in which he allowed 6 hits and 4 earned runs as well as allowing an inherited runner to score.

This outing raised his ERA to 9.00 on the season.

He has just three scoreless innings in his past 10 appearances.

So why is he still a Padre?